Trying to estimate potential Dacogen EU AML approval REVENUE
so we are working with the 30% royalty rate assumed b/c Dacogen is already pushing the top tier royalty rate without EU AML sales.
If approved, $5mil milestone, then after 1st $100mil in sales, another $5mil milestone on top of the $30 mil of royalty revenue on that $100mil in sales. [so total $40 mil out of the first $100 mil EU sales]
Per Eisai website on Dacogen:
3rd Quarter 2012 DACOGEN® reimbursement in the Physician Office setting is $33.737 per 1 mg1, and in the Hospital Outpatient setting is $33.10 per 1 mg.2
These payment rates are in effect from July 1, 2012 through September 30, 2012
If EU AML application is for 50mg, then we estimate $1,686.85 per 50mg treatment ($33.737/mg x 50mg). My question: Is this for one dosage or one treatment regimen, I assume the first
Manuso said at Rodman & Renshaw on September 10th, 2012 that EU AML population is roughly 18,000 with 10,000 being over-65, AML. Said EU AML market bigger than US AML market
So our numbers:
Eisai gets $1,686 per 50mg (Question is how many 50mg's per patient? Help please board members)
Potential 10,000 patients over 65 yrs with AML in EU (anticipate Orphan Status for Elderly AML in EU)
Found an article on Janssen-Cilag that answers my dosage question
So this indicates around $3,373 per week per patient
$33.73/mg x 20mg/day x 5 days = $3,373
so ASTX would receive 30% or just over $1,000 per treating patient per week
DACOGEN was administered at 20 mg/m2 as a 1-hour intravenous infusion once daily for five consecutive days, repeated every four weeks, continued as long as the patient derived benefit. Key results from this study were published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology in June 2012.