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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • maximus06906 maximus06906 Nov 15, 2012 3:21 PM Flag

    Presentation Today

    Free,

    Think you know I am high on Astex's prospects. Some things concern me like:

    1. Where is the update on AT7519?
    2. Why are Dacogen sales going down next year?
    3. What is the impairment charge just booked this quarter? Is it because of MP-470 or GSK relationship ending or another reason?
    4. If you look at the slide on prioritized pipeline programs, they list the Phase 2 of "solid tumor #2" for AT13387 to last 4 YEARS! 2012-2015. Really can this really take 4 years for Phase 2 to end? Does that mean Phase 3 will be 5 years and maybe, if we are lucky they get something approved in 2021?

    All these items make me think that as "great" as the progress is for some aspects of the firm, they are just run with such uncertainy that Wall Street will never pay attention. If SGI-110 was everything you said, someone would buy them. They get a certain revenue stream and $130M in cash right off the bat.

    Maybe I am frustrated at the $2.20 current PPS. After the EU approval, I would have never thought we would be back at these levels. Thought the floor was about $2.50.

    Max

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    • r u going to burst into tears & geez is it as horrible as u r sayin? if so, call mommy and feel better and where the hey is that magic wand when u need it.

    • The guidance slide may be scaring some of the more timid investors, who probably shouldn't be in biotechs anyway but something else like apple or facebook (ooops! nevermind). Guiding a .23 loss for 2013 with the caveat that they are expecting additional license and milestones but they do not guide those due to timing issues. As I recall it was the same drill in setting expectations for a loss this year, maybe someone recalls the figure, and then the actual results look to be coming in at a .04 gain. The other notable figure, which presents a jump for 2013, is the loss from ops (which is tangible and cash generally, unlike the 12 mil intangible noncash one), and I am not clear why that figure jumped, maybe someone can explain that jump (trial expenses, additional staffing, layoffs, all of above).

      As for the rev, guidance no heartburn there, sop is to under guide mildly and over-deliver. Also, maybe the same dealio as last year where they guided a loss (I think it was (.12) or (.16/sh.)?) and then end up profitable for year and now guiding .04/sh. for the end of year. However the (.23) guidance I think is a bigger number than last year and I tink it is largely due to the jump in loss from ops. and my guess here is increased trial costs for 2013.

    • Max,

      Cheer up. AT13387 is in three Ph2's. They are combined with Abiraterone that just started and complete in Jan 2015. Then they have another one in NSLC to be completed by Nov 2014. The other trial is in GIST will complete by Aug 2013.

      All great targets and great shots at approval. SGI-110 will wrap up mid 2013 and be looking at a PH3 in MDS,AML maybe late 2013.

      Did anyone see that picture of Dr. M, he looked old. He doesn't want to be 70 to enjoy the fruits here. I'm sure he will be looking at a buyout in the next few years. I'll continue to add to my position. What I like best, they front loaded the ph2 in aml. I think we're looking at 14pts in MDS and 64 in AML. Usually you try to load it with easier patients. I find that a very positive sign. They know the drug works, so they concentrated on how well it works, in the most difficult pts.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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