Timeline off a little. Had hoped that AT13387 news was released in 2012 as we were told. The trend is your friend. If no generic hits the markets in 2013 on dacogen, revenues could hit $80M. Throw in a milestone and partnership deal, we could be looking at a record cash position at the end of the year.
Here's something I just read. Dacogen got approved in 2006. It took them 13 years to get an approval for MDS. SGI-110 may do it in 4 years, leaving a 15+ years of sales. I believe sgi-110 will replace dacogen and vidaza. Meaning $1B in sales. If you listen to yesterdays presentation. They mention the demethylation with dacogen/vidaza and sgi-110.
Vidaza has something like 6-10% results
SGI-110 is treating heavily pretreated pts. They think they can get to 50% with the 10 day treatment. When they see demethlylation greater than 10% with sgi-110, they see great results.
The key here is a huge biomarker measurement. Could they seek approval in mds without a ph3? The FDA wants safer drugs. SGI-110 maybe as safe as it gets and works. We'll have to see if they can surprise us.
Free. Celgene has lots of funny money(stock price) to use to buy Astex. What are the chances that they do this? Market Cap on Celgene just hit $40B. Incredible the run that CELG is on. What is $900M to them if they take Astex out for $10 per share? They could potentially own the entire global hypomethylator market with is about $1B per year. Wonder if DOJ or FDA stand in front of any potential ASTX/Celgene deal?
Anything's possible. You have gsk,novartis,janssen, astra all maybe eyeing this stock. Specially if they pump out a few more jewels in the fragment business. Celg could see that as the frosting on the cake. But Dr. M will not accept a $10 price in MHO. SGI-110 if it matches dac/vid results with lower side effects, this stock is worth $42 a share on only $700M in sales. I base this on 40% profit margin. ($700M x 40%=$280M. $280M divided by 100M OS=2.80 EPS times a PE of 15= $42 per share.
I think 40% margin in line, Eisai pays astex 30%, they have to be making more than 10%. So conservative. They can have my shares at $30 right now.