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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • kyjellie kyjellie Jan 29, 2013 5:20 PM Flag

    Batzem, what is your price target this year?

    Think,

    Name the generic company? Why would you claim to be long, but think the share price is headed south. The market out there for dacogen is roughly $200M. I don't see a generic entering the picture. Just like vidaza. With the EU aml approval, we could be looking at $90M in revenues this year. But do some DD, show us a real concern. Until and unless you do research, you are as insignificant as loverboy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I agree about the generics. Not too many companies go diving into the orphan drug markets, because the markets just aren't big enough. Generic Lipitor, yes. Generic Dacogen, maybe? Later? Perhaps if other indications get approved, but MDS market is too small.

      • 1 Reply to sicle1471
      • I dont think anyone can name the generic company for the simple reason that most generic companies do not announce their ANDA filings. The exception is when they think they have first to file status in a patent case which gives them 6 months marketing exclusivity if they win. Even then they dont usually announce it but it gets revealed when they are sued by the brand company. As far as the market being big enough you couldnt be more wrong. A 200 million dollar target is plenty large enough for any generic company . Just look at the web sites of teva mylan or watson(now Actavis) and see the generics they market. Many of these drugs were well below 100 million .

        The point is no one knows. The fact that vidaza doesnt have one helps . The fact that Astex lowered their guidance scares me as does the fact that havent gotten a six month patent extension for pediatirc clinicals. If they dont get generic competition this is huge upside in their numbers but it will remain an overhang because of the unknown. Im not up to date as to what special requirements if any were involved in filing an ANDA for Dacogen and if there are when were they published. If anyone wants to spend the time researching this i could offer a more intelligent guess as to when a generic might come.

        All joking aside i believe this company is or will be shopped as soon as a little more data on S110 is available. Man=uso age is the primary factor. He wants to cash out and the clock is ticking..

 
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