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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

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  • kyjellie kyjellie Jan 30, 2013 9:02 AM Flag

    Batzem, what is your price target this year?

    batzem,

    You made some good points about generics. But each situation is unique.Dacogen is a IV drug with a short shelf life. Can you show me a IV drug with a market cap under 100M that went generic. Since any generic will maybe peel away 50% of the market at a 40% discount, means right now, any generic company is looking at 60M market for a very expensive drug to manufaucture. We're not talking about a pill form. They also have the hangover of a 6 month extension and with the recent pediatric news with dacogen, maybe that's now in the works.

    Generics are close copies, but not exact copies of the drugs they go after. These drugs also have numerous side effects that a copy could magnify. There are a lot of headaches getting into this field. If vidaza with the largest share of the market, hasn't seen anyone step up, what makes you so sure we will see one in dacogen.

    With sgi-110 showing great results, generics have to be worried that it becomes the first in class. Making their piece of the pie even smaller. They have to look at the ramp up costs, training, hiring,inventory control. Just about the time they get to breakeven here, sgi-110 maybe getting approved. However Dr. M stated that dacogen would be easier to copy then vidaza. We'll have to see what materializes. Good discussion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy