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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

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  • kyjellie kyjellie Feb 1, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

    Dacogen sales

    No one happy about $59M in dac revenues? I looked at the 4th quarter revenues from last year and wanted to estimate what J&J contribution was and have it to compare to this quarter report when it's released:

    Sales of Dacogen in the 3Q11 was $46M.....Reported revenues from this by astx in the 4Q11 was $15.371M.

    Here's how you figure our revenues and calculate J&J contribution:

    $36M x 25% = $9M
    $10M x 27.5%=$ 2.75M

    That equals $11.75M but they reported $15.371M

    The difference has to come from Dacogen sold by J&J. My guess is that J&J was doing about $13.16M in dacogen sales in the 3Q11. Netting astx $3.61M in the quarter from what they sell.

    Roll forward to 2012 This newest quarter updates soon, what do sales look like for this quarter (1Q12 57M, 2Q12 55M, 3Q12 55M) This equals 167M for the three quarters. Meaning that of the $55M reported (38M gets 25% treatment and 17M gets 27.50%)

    $38M x .25% = $9.5M
    $17M x 27.5% = 4.6475M
    +J&J revenues (If we use 2011 value of $3.61M)

    The lowest estimate I calculate is that ASTX will report at least $17.74M
    Add in the $5M milestone and we are looking at 22.75M. However in 2011 astx had a 5.833M milestone similar to this years milestone achievement. Last years revenues $21.204M, this year $22.75M. Plus J&J additional sales for aml approval. I maybe able to estimate when astx would receive another $5M milestone by reaching the $100M in sales of dacogen in the EU.

    I wonder if there are plans on dacogen in Japan? That has another $12M in milestones.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy