After 7 years I finally exited yesterday at $6.53. I was ambivalent, because I think the company may finally be on its way. But having sat on basically dead money for years, I decided to take the 30% gain and move on. In retrospect, I should have dollar cost averaged and would have made a much better gain but I'm amazed that I made 30%. Good luck to the longs and ASTX!
I like that word Ambilvalent. It's difficult to look at any price increase and not over weigh the meaning of it. The street has ignored reality for an instance. Be thankful and position yourself accordingly. The biotech sector was on fire, you were in the right place at the right time. You have to do a gut check and in the quite moments, seriousily exam, is the pipeline advanced enough to earn this valuation? Each of you know, how easy it's to watch it disappear. The last time it traded near this price, the stock had much fewer shares outstanding. You had maybe 53M shares back then at $6.50, total valuation $344M. Today the value is $604M. You had the future of dacogen royalities in the USA, today they are putting the breaks on. The street does not like burn and that's on the horizon.
The company has a balloon payment to astex in January 2014 in cash or stock. You have dacogen going generic and you enter the burn phase on cash. Maybe you beat the odds.