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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 9:49 AM Flag

    Next three years earnings

    Thought I would take a look at what the next Three years looks like:

    Revenues: Losing only 50% of Dacogen royalties, very conservative estimate:

    $105M Revenues
    $20M Milestone Maybe they get lucky

    $125M Total revenues

    Expenses (Currently $100M a year, bump it up for ph3 modest 10%)

    $14M payment to former astex insiders


    Losses of $219M (Cash on hand only $135M) How do they make up $84M? Diluted shareholders 50M shares? If expenses dramatically go up, theses losses will be wishful thinking. But don't you fret, secondline on the way in 4 years. That's if they can get past the low response rates and competitors making moves to the hoop. Do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • You continue to post lies and half truths.

      The 14 million to insiders will likely be paid for with stock. If it makes 7, the stock required would be 2 million shares, not the 50 million you cynically pu forward. This is a very acceptable 2& dilution when you consider that the cash is needed elsewhere. You continue to completely ignore the fact that a percentage of the losses in your illustration are non cash items and will not deplete the bank account.

      SGI110 is has not been partnered out. The company will certainly sell at least a piece of this and you can expect the up front payment to be significant. Once that happens, the cost of trials for SHI 110 will either be significantly reduced or eliminated as the partner takes on all expenses.

      There are other assets like Amuvatinib which will be sold outright. They have already alluded to this in conference calls.

      I also believe SGI110 will gain approval before your 3 year target is reached and the cash drain will be completely reversed.

      • 1 Reply to jelly1126
      • jelly,

        You have it all figured out in your head. See you can claim $9 coming and that's truthful statements. I break down the current financial situation and point out what the picture may look like and that's half truths. If generic takes a 70% bite out of USA sales, then I was very generous with my post on revenues. I gave you 50% of the current yearly sales. Recall that you are losing the revenues that pay 30%,27.5% and most likely the 25%. This is a big difference.

        The last statement is really questionable. You won't even be in ph3 for another 9 months. Complete reversal is your opinion. You will be lucky if any decision comes before 2Q17. If they go after MDS or AML expect 2018. I left expenses pretty much untouched, but that was the only untruth, I didn't factor in that expenses could run 50% higher than they are currently. Dr. M may have to scrap the options or non cash charges, so he can show the bleeding isn't as bad as it could be.

        It seems that I go very conservative on the numbers, so not to hype up the pumpettees and they still find fault. Well I hope you get lucky and unload some of the drain. So far, I don't know any company who welcome a second line drug. Maybe Dr. Reddy' will take it off your hands. But when the numbers start rolling in, pumpettees will blame everyone but themselves. Do your own DD, pumpettees pull events out of their hat as if they already happen.

        Sentiment: Sell

    • As usual you analysis is full of innuendos and half truths and not worth refuting point by point Suffice it to say if they were short they would not have to issue 50 million shares to raise 84 million dollars. If you cant do simple math how can we believe anything you say. The market price strongly disagrees with your analysis as evidenced by the stock price. So does the rising institutional ownership. Thanks for your concern dolt its become comical.

      • 1 Reply to batzem
      • Well batzem, raising $84M will only pay for the bills they owe, what about going forward. Your CEO enjoys the $2.5M he gets paid, they like to fork out $4M in options every so often. Simple math is all you can do, it's the complexities that get you. Thanks Jeffro for that lesson in deciphering.

        The new pumpettee slogan is" how can we believe anything you say". I notice this same theme in every thread.

        Sentiment: Sell