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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • bioinvestor2000 bioinvestor2000 Apr 28, 2001 11:14 AM Flag

    A reason why SUPG is down?

    I know I am going to get nailed, but I want to seriously put forward a suggestion to this board. This is that one of the reasons SUPG is down on its luck despite having excellent fundamentals is the amount of personal messages on this board and in general messages irrelevant to the company. It may not be a very important reason but it sure does not help! Consider that many investors do go to the message boards as part of their investment plans. As you all know with the current state of this board it is extremely hard to quickly find relevant messages about SUPG, and several investors have posted complaining about it. In fact one of the most important rules in the basher's handbook it to discourage any meaningful discussion about the company on the message boards. Can we please reduce the amount of personal messages on this board?

    Thank you.

    Time and Patience are The Way to Profits!

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    • but bioinvestor2000 is NOT Boogins_00.

      Nice try though. God, don't you start spreading propaganda too.

      Boogins is gone.
      September is gone.
      Amacherj is gone.
      c3ipo is right there... see the one with his head in the sand.
      dshlm is here... she's right next to c3ipo but has one eye peeking out but closes it when the dust starts flying.
      Oh hell, lots of people are gone, except digmoney, realstockguy and the employees of SuperGen (they are all... how do I say... sharing a common bond)

    • and this is the nuts and bolts (minus medical speak - so all can understand) --

      #1 - They have a drug (Rubitecan) that is effective in pancreatic cancer and that does not cause the patients to feel sicker than the cancer nor cause their hair to fall out.

      #2 - They have decitabine, a drug with promising data in hematologic cancers and MDS which would have a very large indication for decitabine.

      #3 - A fantastic team to guide it all through the clinical .... UH OH.... nevermind, that's all gone now (deadwood, you know)... BUT irregardless (that's not a word, right? I like it anyway) of how F'd up this management team* is (*- well, no team, Dr. Joe only really - there is no team anymore, but I digress) someone/something (even if it's God Almighty) will get these two drugs approved.

      I could give a damn about the rest of the pipeline for now. Except I am seriously considering Rubiwipes as cleanup for my kitty paw dilemma. You see, I'm somewhat of a clean freak about counter tops and tile floors. I love my cats, but their dirty little paws are everywhere. Where the hell can I get my hands on those Rubisafe Wipes?! Have the sales rep call me.

      Duck, sweetie... don't kiss Dr. Joe's ass. It's nauseating. Of course he's still there. He's stubborn as a f*ing mule and has no where else to go. What do you give the man that has everything? A biotech company! You really don't think it would be easier on him to step down do you? Although that would be easier on us. Take my word for it, Duck... A new...

      Nevermind... Truce until after ASCO. Hopefully he'll retire after some good news and end his career on an up-note... for a change.

      Oooo boy, am I gonna get a sh*t load of shrapnel now!

      OXOXOXXOXOXOXOXOX

    • You sure sound like a ex-investor I remember on this board. Did the previous handle you used on this board have two O's in it and an S at the end. Something in your writing style makes me think of another.

      Anyway, if your are who I think you are, I hope all is well with you and that having ridden SUPG down to 20 from 77 with as many shares as I knew you had didn't make you lose site of what is promised here. PC is a terrible disease and someone needs to find a cure or at least a way of minimizing the speed and relentlessness at which it kills.

      Good luck to you whatever the case. Time and patience are indeed the way to profits!

      Good luck to all!

    • Bioinvestor,
      I said I would have a truce with the company so I cannot really go into details.

      I like the pipeline. I do not like the management. I don't see management. I held a fair amount of shares for a long period of time but got out at $20 during the decline. Now I am watching. I do not mean to offend anyone, however no matter how bullish the people on this board maybe they have currently no CONCRETE reasons to be optimistic. In time they may, but it is sheer speculation on their part that the company is healthy enough to meet their milestones. I am not staying the company will or won't, at this time, but I am saying no one knows and if someone claims they do they are not being honest. I think Soc mentioned the burn rate was too high, so that negates the cash. $130 million is not bad, but in this game it is not great. I will not discount Drake's opinion until it is proven wrong. To date he has been right. I do not buy into the "vendetta" talk I've heard. Even if he hates the Rubinfelds he still has a reputation and job that should maintain his objectivity. The drugs are great. I hope they see the light of day. I have two personal milestones for reinvesting in the company. A non-Rubinfeld in the driver's seat or FDA approval. An NDA submission from the Rubinfelds would not be enough for me to risk again. Once bitten, twice shy. I made money when I sold, however had I known the problems they swept under the rug I could have gotten out at $77.

      That is all I feel free to say at this point. They do not display the winning edge that Buffet would look for. I think INKP does. That is where my SUPG money went while I sit this out.

    • 1. Because Joe has been here before no matter the family problems
      2. Abbott with a milestone coming
      3. $130 million in the bank
      4. A huge untapped pipeline yet to come
      5. The first on the block for PC unless C225 overtakes them

    • Finally I have had some time to think about your earlier six sigma post (message 31766).

      At first I was confused as I thought you were referring to five sigma. Five sigma is the derogatory term that academicians that back the efficient market theory (ie; you can't beat the market) use to refer to the super investor Warren Buffet who has proved this theory is wrong. Five sigma is the space on the upper tail of a normal probability curve (upper 5%), and the idea is that any event that is rare and unlikely to be duplicated falls within this region and is called a five sigma event. Of course these academics also have to explain the success of many others like Keynes, Fisher, Munger, Lou Simpson, Ruane and others who have made their fortunes with investment philosophies which share a lot with buffet's.

      An integral part of these philosophies is time and patience (hence my investment motto). However, and integral part of these philosophies is also investing in good companies with good management. So I guess that here is were your "six sigma" comes in, time and patience will not make a good company better. In fact buffet said that time is the ally of a good company and the enemy of a bad one.

      Fist let me say that the likes of Buffet and company would never invest in a business that they can't value, and specially in a company like Supergen which has no earnings! However, if you have SUPG stock your investment philosophy is a tad different, and most likely you are betting on future earnings to take place.

      So I guess our shared question dingo is: "is Supergen a good company with good management"? Does it have problems? Can and will these problems be corrected? Is this worth waiting for when your money could be invested elsewhere?

      So I would like to propose that the SUPG board regulars formally debate these questions for the benefit of other investors. So, for example, why don't some of you regulars (dingosack, eadarainn, socmelben123, raisethebid, hclasvegas, digmoney, golfguy and others) post a message were in one or two paragraphs you explain why you currently hold SUPG stock as opposed to pursuing other investments and deal with some of the above questions. What do you think?

      I hope you all will agree, thank you.

      Time and Patience are The Way to Profits!

      Bioinvestor 2000

    • "The Phase II is NOT completion of accrual of 400 patients on the Phase III trial."

      Sorry, my error during cutting and pasting.

      Also, I don't think there is a milestone for completion of accrual for phaseIII

    • "...case reports on patients..."

      No, that would not be completion of accrual. Accrual is simply getting the patients on trial, not having their data. That's another process altogether.

      The Phase II is NOT completion of accrual of 400 patients on the Phase III trial. The Phase II trial was the one started by the former team, and the PRELIMINARY results were published in abstract at last year's ASCO meeting. The FINAL data should be complete and is the possible FIRST milestone and the one that is being rumored that is coming?

    • "I have to revisit the milestone issue... What milestone is likely to occur soon?"

      A. $5m for Completion of Supergen's Pancreatic PhaseII
      B. $7.5m for Phase2 for another indication (2 of these are available)

      "Phase II Is the completion of accrual of the 400 patients into the Rubitecan vs. 5FU trial arm a Milestone?" I don't think so

      "Or is there a milestone after the entire Phase III completes accrual?" I am not sure, but maybe that is what the following is talking about

      ii) five million dollars ($5,000,000) worth of equity investment in SuperGen, subject to the terms and conditions of the Stock Purchase Agreement, upon SuperGen's completion, to Abbott's reasonable satisfaction, of the * Plan and completion and delivery to Abbott or to an independent safety board of the * case reports on patients in the *;"

    • "Is the completion of accrual of the 400 patients into the Rubitecan vs. 5FU trial arm a Milestone?"

      I would hope not. I do not see how that merits a payment. If I am wrong, please explain it to me.

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