While your thinking is logical, the price of sugar has very little impact on HFCS over the short term for two reasons. First, because users like KO/PEP contract prices during the fallfor a full year. And second, major users like KO/PEP do not have flex capacity. They are set up in the US to only use HFCS, not sugar. To convert their assets would require capex. Bottlers would also protest the companies requiring them to spend this money. For packaged foods, same deal, plus HFCShas some favorable blending properties over sugar. A tertiary reason is that US does not have any excess refining capacity, and refined sugar imports have a huge tarrif.