http://seekingalpha.com/article/682391-arena-pharmaceuticals-how-good-can-it-get?source=yahooAlthough the above article is speaking towards ARNA valuation, using the most extreme discounting model of 20% per year on HZNP, based on projected $350M sales:2015: $280M sales2014: $224M sales2013: $179M sales2013 sales x 3 = $537.6M divided by33M shares = $16.29/share (oddly enough the high analyst price target is $16)Drug companies are often discounted at 10% vice 20%, so double target to price to $32 on best scenario. Drug companies can also 6xsales on a takeover so real best scenario is $64/share. I believe including takeover premium price will be at least $1.1B (2x2013 extreme company valuation), or about $33/share.
Now we just need approval and the pricing will take care of itself.
optimistic for price double or triple