Go to the HZNP web site and click on "events and presentations" under the "investors" heading and listen to the "Investment Community Briefing on RAYOS". It's long. But, Listen all the way through and you will get the idea of the advantages that RAYOS presents to the patient. Specially follow the graphs from the CAPRA I & II clinical trials and listen closely to Doctor Weaver. My thinking is that the Doctors will eventually replace their generic prednisone prescriptions with RAYOS once they pick up on the fact that RAYOS works with the patient's circadian rhythm and allows for lower dosing and therefore longer term use with far fewer side effects. Watching that video is very enlightening.
The jury is still out on Duexis, which is obviously having some issues gaining traction due to price, pharm substitutions, and abstract benefit (having to understand the GI damage issue). I think the company may eventually do well but it will take time to build this brand.
Rayos, on the other hand, is less complicated. Pain is easily understood, and word of mouth from RA patients should do much to bolster sales (which will only be starting in earnest by the end of January). Since there is no other time-released prednisone, substitutions won't be a problem. Add to this the additional applications that were approved (that are not even yet being targeted, such as asthma). The original initial projections went from the lowest of $85M to the highest of about $120M,
but now there are even some speculations that it could be a $1B seller eventually.
Duexis profits are also shared in US with Covidien sales force. Rayos will be only promoted through HZNP reps in the US which will mean more $$$ back to the company.
I think that anything above $160M for combined Duexis/Rayos sales puts the company in the black (paying off expenses and cost). This should not be an issue in any case, and of course I'm hopeful for Rayos to be a serious surprise to those minimizing its potential.
The real wild card for HZNP should come after the launches of Duexis and Rayos (about end of Q1/early Q2) when I expect the company to announce additional drug(s) that are either partnered or bought out. You have to believe the CEO has lots of time on his hands with no ongoing internal research, and is likely using it wisely to evaluate potential candidates (as he has previously stated).
Good luck to all and Happy Holidays! 2013 should be a good one for HZNP!