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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

  • postbusters postbusters Mar 18, 2013 1:57 PM Flag

    The Truth - As Always (CC analysis)

    First lets applaud the snap back today as shorts tried to take advantage of the accounting change in Lodotra sales to sell off HZNP (wow, you could have made over 10% trading today, but I don't anymore). To be specific, HZNP started recognizing revenue on Lodotra when shipped to the warehouse, which required a one time accounting adjustment from the actual sales there were recording previously.

    Looks like $2.46 is becoming support but still remains to be seen. Almost 1200 subscribe to the Seeking Alpha transcript reports for HZNP which shows that we're definitely being watched closely. Another positive sign is that Annabel was at the call, instead of sending one of her assistants (so she's warmed up to HZNP once again).

    Biggest two items in the CC according to me were:

    Covidien reps have not been actively selling Duexis to any great extent yet (distracted by the break up). That means that virtually all of the sales increases we've seen in Duexis were with the 150 in house sales reps and only half of the target physicians (25,000 exclusive to Covidien/25,000 exclusive to HZNP). Covidien reps will start selling the drug more robustly this quarter as there are agreements in place that require them to meet minimum targets. What this really means is that Duexis sales should have been double what they were last quarter (and 25% more profit) - if that's not encouraging what is. We should see a mega-acceleration in sales when Covidien steps it up.

    HZNP has instituted a novel, direct shipment program for Duexis which bypasses the pharms (may of which substitute product - couldn't be specific but old number was 30%). The program is up and running in 10 regions and will be expanded due to its great success. None of the analysts had apparently ever heard of a similar program, which means its probably a novel HZNP innovation - told you TW was a smart one!

    New products will come on, but the company is not expecting to have to pay up front for them. Go HZNP!

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    • Some very good points there. If its true about lodotra, and no material change In sales, this is great news because it shows the great potential for rayos in the usa, which is supposed to be much greater than Europe and the rest of the world. Go HZNP indeed! !!!

      • 1 Reply to moaamar1778
      • Looks like we're confirming that $2.46 is now support. Combine today's rise with yesterday's spectacular drop and reversal and we appear to be in a strong upward trend. Good news from the company on sales and prospects has severely weakened the short argument. TW has a strategic plan, and is executing (and innovating new industry concepts along the way, such direct product sales rather than using the pharms).

        Nothing technically between current price and $4.50. European approval of Duexis and New Product additions are definite catalysts on the horizon (as well as increasing sales, particularly when Covidien kicks it up). Hmmmm, maybe those funds and private buyers that gobbled up those private placements new what they were doing (sure haven't been selling any stock!).

    • appreciate quality post. looking forward to ur continued postings. gl2u

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