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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

  • mikerconfer mikerconfer Apr 10, 2013 1:23 PM Flag

    The Waiting Game

    Once again those of us who are long this stock are sitting here thumb-twiddling, waiting for the path to the North to clear. Kind of like waiting for the Spring snows to melt (or for those of us here in Texas to wait for the constant gale from the south to subside) so that we can actually get out and get some work done. It's an exercise in patience, as so many things seem to be; the good news is that patience is often rewarded.

    I have no earthly idea where this stock is going to be a week from now. I could guess, and from time to time I have, but the chances are as good that I'll be wrong as they are that I'd be right. Honestly, there are a number of technical signals that seem to indicate that another rally, somewhat stronger than the last is in the cards for the very near term - but technical analysis deals with probabilities and statistics and both of those are slave to the same limitations as the weather forecast and we all know how credible THAT can be.

    I am, on the other hand, fairly comfortable with where the stock price will be in six months' time - at least in fairly broad terms. The reason for my comfort is that I believe that both products currently at-market will be highly successful and continue to meet a growing need. I also believe that Horizon's management will continue to seek new opportunities for growth and product expansion, and (since they are a rather talented bunch) that they will be successful in exploiting those opportunities.

    Anyway, here we sit at a resistance point (exactly $2.52 as I type this) and we're waiting for the snow to melt. Well, I can assure you that it will and that the path will clear, just as I can assure you that $2.52 will give way, and that absent an unseasonably late blizzard, it's going to be a dandy Spring.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Mike.... Do you have an end of year price target? I am thinking maybe $4 for this year and $7 sometime in 2014 as revenues accelerate. Thanks.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to nc3912
      • nc3912 -

        Remember too that $3.50 was the price of the secondary offering. If we breach that within the next couple of quarters, there could be a significant positive effect on the perception of this stock's market value prior to the EOY. Market psych is something I don't dabble in much, but I would think that breaking the $3.50 threshold cold have the effect of shooting us through the fours and into the low fives pretty quickly.

      • EOY? Around $5 based on what I saw from the conference slides but I'm really waiting for the next earnings report for Rayos/Duexis sales figures to firm up that estimate. The data so far this year looks fairly positive but we're still looking at a fairly thin dataset.

    • Hi mike. While i agree on long term, I strongly disagree on technical signs of immediate strength. The reason hznp bounced slightly is market rally and nothing else. I think we will see sub 2 $ before 5 $

      • 2 Replies to moaamar1778
      • moaamar1778 -

        I think you should look at your data again. I'm reading a steadily decreasing volume for the past several trading sessions up to the day before yesterday with volume increasing yesterday and (so far) again this morning. Money Flow is nearly neutral (actually just slightly positive) and the RSI is right at 50 and rising from yesterday. It feels like a momentum swing to me, and if it does break $2.52 on volume, I think it'll be a strong one.

        $2.52 is very strong resistance but it was successfully challenged (IDH of $2.54) yesterday and it looks like it will be challenged again today. Next resistance is a double at $2.78 then a single at $3.18. If volume tracks the way I think it will today and tomorrow it could signal a breakout.

        I'm also seeing (not enough data points to be certain) the start of a developing upward channel that will define a new trading range for the stock between (rough estimate) $2.75 and $3.25. Just my opinion and more a product of the general "feel" of the chart the past couple of months than any algorithmic analysis.

        As far as a sub $2 breakdown, with strong support in the $2.30s and some support at $2.02 I don't see that happening without a significant negative catalyst. I mean "never say 'never'" after all, but I'm certainly not getting that from anything on the TA side.

        Broad market rallies don't IMO particularly influence small-cap biopharm stocks, which tend to trade independent of the indices anyway. That's why (one of the reasons anyway) I like to play in this particular sandbox.

        Anyway, like I said, I think you may be missing something in your data. Happy hunting in any event.

      • To each their own, I guess. I'm seeing bullish signals in money flow, volume and a flattening of the RSI that to me suggest an impending rally. If you are right about the sub $2, I'll be very surprised.

    • Good writing! it is like reading a novel.

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