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Horizon Pharma, Inc. (HZNP) Message Board

  • arhdan9 arhdan9 Sep 13, 2013 4:06 PM Flag

    Boys and Girls It's Short Covering Hold Your Shares Tight

    "Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    8/30/2013 5,453,996 556,445 9.801501
    8/15/2013 5,163,960 324,060 15.935197
    7/31/2013 4,836,958 405,268 11.935208
    7/15/2013 5,086,243 205,089 24.800175
    6/28/2013 4,763,168 417,577 11.406682"

    It's almost impossible for the shorts to cover if the price is not shot to $6, but all this depends on all of us who must hold our shares not selling in this artificially low price.

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    • I agree with Gunner that the short interest is not a big factor to push up the price, but still a factor in favor the bull.
      The major issue here is the removal of the uncertainty of generic. That might open the door for a buyout.
      The only weakness of HZPN is the company still burning the cash and its weak debt/cash position. But with the steady growth of its revenue, the company will be make even by the end of next year. The Street will realize the value eventually.
      Technically, HZPN looks great. It is highly likely it will be 3.4-3.6 be year end after the recent breakout. Good luck for all the longs.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I rather doubt it. I think what's happening here is that finally we're developing a bit of momentum between sales of Rayos and Duexis getting some traction and a big part of the generic threat falling away. My last report shows the short percentage of float at a bit over 12%, which isn't particularly high for this sector (MNKD for example is over 30%, ARNA is just a little under that and SRPT's a whopping 39.5%. We've seen the percentage of the float held short here significantly higher over the past several months.

      Should longs hold onto their shares? Sure they should - there's a lot of potential here. Should they do it because the stock is, out of the blue, going to go parabolic because of a puny 12% short float? Not so much. This isn't a "battleground" stock. We aren't looking at some huge binary catalyst here. We have a company whose business plan is giving nice signals of actually working, where sales are in a footrace with cash burn that they might actually win and whose products have a lot of market potential. That should be enough.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • As much as I love HZNP, your theory is completely flawed.

      They can cover the whole SI at $3.49 per share. During the secondary, the company issued free warrants at an exercise price of $3.49.

      If the stock ever gets there, all the poor souls that participated in the secondary will sell their shares and keep the warrants.

      That's an upside with no downside. That was their original plan but the stock price tanked right after the offering and never visited $3.49 ever since.

      The Gunner

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to thegunnerab
      • You don't get it, do you?

        In the case of HZNP, the shorts have held so far no covering is because the genetic drug issue, which has been removed in favor of HZNP. Now the shorts have no reason to believe the company will go out of business, to believe that revenue may collapse. So why pay hefty interests, and not cover. If they cover now they still make some money or make no money later.

        As the process is going ahead, panic may come in. That's why the higher price. Of course, nobody is sure about his theory.

      • One more point, SPPI had 25M shares short back in March, 40% of the total outstanding shares.
        The stock price was $12.5 and everyone on the MB said there is no way they can cover without shooting the price to $20.

        Guess what? SPPI F..ed big time and the stock price fell from $12.5 to $7.5 in one day... The volume was 40M shares.

        Every short that desired to cover at $7.5 had a chance of doing so.

        BTW, the SI in HZNP is less than 10% of outstanding shares.....

        Have a great weekend,

        The Gunner

        Sentiment: Buy

10.30+0.14(+1.38%)Aug 29 3:59 PMEDT

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