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Horizon Pharma, Inc. (HZNP) Message Board

  • postbusters postbusters Nov 19, 2013 8:49 PM Flag

    BOLD MOVES

    Vimovo move will be huge. Profit will soar after raising the price (they will) and applying the business to business sales model with increased sales force (70% new territory for Vimovo with existing non-overlapping physicians), pme direct filling and refills, and 35-40% gross/net out of pocket coverage.

    CEO makes bold moves and investors will be greatly rewarded. Replaced debt with very favorable termed convertible securities, completely paying for Vimovo and pocketing cash to boot (look for more new products to be acquired once Vimovo is on track).

    Even after the pop in price, company projecting profitability with over $300M gross sales (over $200M net) with virtually no debt, large cash reserves and 3 products with spiking sales - STILL LESS THAN $400M market cap (which is crazy).

    Price right now should be $15 and I now raise my 2014 target to $30/share. Way to go TW!!!!!!

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    • bump

    • PB, can't tell you how much I/We appreciate your input and analysis! Your predictions have been "spot on" to date. Anyone can get it right every once in a while. However, it's the ability to explain the reasoning in your thought process and professional manner in which you do so that commands my respect. You're definitely a believer in this company and TW (as you have helped me to be as well), yet you won't hesitate to encourage and help readers in doing their own due diligence on the pros and cons. I'd like to also mention Marco and Mike in the same vein.... By and large the posts and dialogue on this board has been healthy and void of the nonsense on most other boards. As this stock gains more attention (as has already begun) due to success, more shock and sound bite posters will emerge with their illiterate bias and short term agendas. I appreciate and look forward to the input from all of you who have kept the conversation on this board as professional, intelligent and thought provoking as it has been.

      • 1 Reply to commonsenseareus
      • cs, I really appreciate the positive comments and will continue to do my best to provide my independent observations. Since you mentioned that I like to back my statements up with rationale, the $30/share by the end of 2014 comes from

        a. 50 cent profit from Duexis
        b. 25 cent profit from Rayos
        c. 25 cent profit from Vimovo - this is a 80% profit product, with gross/net of 35-40% bringing it to
        48%. I anticipate price rising in accordance with HZNP's pattern, so profit will be much higher and sales will ramp up as they have with the other two products.

        Using the same 30x multiple that the high average analyst predicts (e.g. 33cents/$10), we have a stock price of $30. I'm betting I'm not far off unless unforeseen circumstances impact the company.

        Only reason stock price hasn't jumped more is the skepticism that HZNP will be able to reverse the falling sales of Vimovo and turn it into a treasure. I have now doubt TW and Co. can and will do so.

    • PB, so far your optimism has rewarded the board, for those who have listened to you. There was one poster who also appeared to be credible who has since sold out and gone over to ISIS, his posts were misleading and he talked of dilution when the stock was $3.50. It never happened and now it won't happen, the stock has risen $2.56 since then. We after today have clear skies ahead and three products to drop into the already established sales force. TW has made bold moves and taken care of business for sure. He knows how to create shareholder value. I bought more shares last week and also yesterday. From what you are saying, it is safe to buy more shares at these suddenly higher prices. It's hard to adjust one's mind to the new reality, but I am ramping upmy expectations, and adding more shares on any pull back, and there's sure to be one, all stocks cycle!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jrdelane
      • JRD, thanks for encouragement. I think I have been consistent, and objective in my assessments(although an enthusiastic supporter).

        In my opinion, we are barely at the start of HZNP's meteoric rise to stardom. One must ask oneself, in trying to understand what just happened - could almost any other start-up CEO have had the access to a major pharm like AZN and be able to analyze and take over one of their products so easily. TW is one of them - most of the high level executives in the industry were either his employees or peers at one time or another. His vision in being able "to take underperforming Vimovo" off AZN's hands will prove to be nothing short of spectacular. There will be a wait and see attitude among skeptics, but by the time the numbers start spiking, the stock price will be many dollars ahead of where it is now.

        If there was any criticism I could levy on the company, it that its current patent portfolio expires in a tight window (all around 2023). They need to spread out the future - but that my friend is a long time away and I have no doubt that a huge number of profitable products will be added to bolster the enterprise.

        In the words of the CEO, he is building out a managed care company vice the specialized pharm companies the industry is used to. TW has proved his mastery of all things in the arena of marketing, reimbursement and promotion. What price can you put on a visionary of this magnitude in control of his own destiny through management of a well capitalized public company.

        I'll repeat that the stock should be $15 right now and I strongly believe it will be $30 or more by the end of 2014. Unless there is a real negative surprise (e.g. products not selling, patent issue), I would not count on any sustained pull backs between now and then.

    • Would be remiss if I didn't also mention the 13% and 17% Duexis/Rayos sep/oct gains, putting my previously stated caution to rest. Love the transparency of how the company puts out lots of inter-quarter data.

 
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