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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

  • geringerart geringerart Aug 28, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    State Your Case - Here's Mine

    Other than meaningless babble about what people think will happen to the price, what is the underlying fundamental argument that supports your assertions?

    HZNP is up 30% from the low after the crash, 34% for the year, and about 500% since Aug 2013 (one year).

    Inversion Legislation won't happen and Merger Will, giving HZNP at least 15% additional retained earnings.

    Actimmune is about to add to the revenue stream by at least $58M net/year (fact), but more likely at least double that for 2015 (opinion).after being put on HZNP managed care schedule and increased applications.

    CEO has reaffirmed 2014 earnings and pre-announced sharply increased projected 2015 earnings (fact), both of which they will beat handily (opinion).

    CEO is already evaluting new products and has $200M to buy them without additional finance (fact). We will have 2 to 3 new products in the next 6 months, and they will turn their current $20-80M nets into at least 3x that (and maybe more - opinion).

    We are too late in the year for more exclusions to be announced (opinion)

    TW is awesome (fact). Do your own DD before buying, selling or sitting on the sideline (fact).

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    • I disagree with the attacks on PB and want to offer a defense. His posts are not the vapid drivel of pumpers but rather always full of numbers and important information. I've learned a lot from him about valuing fundamentals as I have from Mike on the technicals. The exclusions things was like a meteorite. Who ever could have predicted that deserves his own psychic hotline business.

      I've been out for a month since 3/4 of my shares were affected by the wash rule. But I'm back now. Thank all of you for your comments. I'm an old guy but relatively new to investing on my own. So active message boards like this are helpful in addition to whatever I've learned elsewhere from investopedia, etc.

      • 1 Reply to brozski
      • I couldn't agree more, brozski (and thanks for the kind mention of my posts as well); postbusters nearly always offers substantive commentary here and he NEVER fails to make it clear that he has a Bullish bias toward this company, as do I. The tone of most of these attacks seems to be that some people feel that postbusters has a responsibility to do their Due Diligence for them - which is absurd. Exclusions are ALWAYS a risk when price of a pharmaceutical is expanded and it's not as if we hadn't had those happen before here. The business model is adjusted and we move on.

        The very good news here is that these two Exclusions didn't signal a any following exclusions from other PBMs and that the closing of the Merger is only a few weeks off now. Management has historically been pretty aggressive about product expansion and there's a "war chest" in place to make that happen in Q4. There's a lot of upside here. Are there risks? Sure, there are ALWAYS risks. But given the track record I suspect that we're going to be trading at levels a LOT higher than the current price before the EOY.

    • Why do you only post now when PPS rises? S**t is going to hit the fan once tax inversions are stopped.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • FACT is:

      this was a $15 stock in July

      now 10.

      babble all you want.. other than those who got in at your cost basis a year ago (most of those are all out of here)... this stock has been terrible..

      those who bought at 8 to 9 will be out soon...

      again i have no position and do not intend to.. unless it spikes up into $11-12 level w/ low volume w/ no news.

      market is toppy... i doubt this will go up

      it may not even hold $10 by end of this week, before long wknd

38.32+2.19(+6.06%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT