by: good_inv (37/M/NY) 06/07/04 09:59 pm Msg: 3911 of 3913
"A liitle bit of ATEA's history. Company lost money from operations since 1996, $4.8M in 1996, $19M in 1997, $7.5M in 1998, $3.6M in 1999, $5.1M in 2000, $1.5M in 2001, $1.1M in 2002, $5.5M in 2003. How much? $48M lost. But CEO Zack Bergreen was able to cash out $14M in July-2000 as a dividend distribution of $10.25 per current share (assuming 5:1 reverse split in 2001). He owns directly more than 47% shares. The distributed money were gained from the sale of subsidiaries, which were acquired/merged in 1995-1996. This is why nobody touched the stock since late 2000 till latest months, well known that company is not competitive from technology point of view. Also most of revenues last years Astea got from services not from licenses. While competitors like Clicksoftware and Viryanet experienced the drought in licenses in 2002-2003, Astea more or less kept the level, earning from services, also losing money, but less. To the end of 2003 Clicksoftware and Viryanet started to show improved results, their stocks multiplied themselves many times. But ATEA left in miserable position. With no signs of recovery. Then excellent plan came to execution, company announced simultaneously disaster 4q03 (almost no licenses) and announced that they are on track to profitability with booming 1q04 license sales. Now, nobody can predict Astea's revenues in next 2-3 quarters, company never showed consistency in sales and one very profitable quarter (after one very unprofitable) isn't a proof of recovery. There is no way to know it before 2q04 results reported. In my opinion, company's history may tell the story. An owner will do his best to cash out current uptick in stock price. Somebody mentioned he called to company and spoke to new CFO, sounded very optimistic. I would be optimistic too if I just started to work for new company, got 30000 (sign-up bonus) options with exercise price $3.41 and see stock traded already $10 above conversion price. Would you? $300K from the scratch? As I said I think CEO will try to use momentum to cash out again his ownership. Most likely to raise money by selling new shares (provide liquidity for stock, of course) and then try to sell company or issue another dividend, as in 2000. It's hard to believe that company which never made a money in boom-growth-years can do it in current environment. "