Well here we go. This is where the rubber hits the road.
Does MOVE meet or beat the street? Here is why I think they are going to exceed the street in tomorrows Q2 Conference Call.
1. They are now able to recognize earnings from the renewed Cendant deal which will add approximately 5 - 6 million to the bottom line for the quarter.
2. They have launched Welcome Wagon's new initiative which is stuffed with new well paying national and local advertisers in their distribution of 18 million homeowner packets (up from 2 million). Not all packets will have been distributed but they will be able to recognize ad revenue immediately as all of these new revenue sources are now on thier website. This is big $$$$$$.
3. The 2nd quarter is when they have the majority of the R E industry trade shows for their sales and they should have easily beat last year based on solid growth and a slowing of the market. A slowing of the market always gets REALTORS to spend more in attempts to maintain their incomes or increase their market share. This is so dependable we should have a name for it like moore's law.
4. If any money was coming back from the Wolff and Taffeen settlements this is where we will see it hit the numbers, and I think we are going to see low 7 figures come back to MOVE.
5. The contact management division, Top Producer, has been growing at a good and healthy clip and will be recognizing their largest usage fees yet.
If I was short I would have covered by now out of plain fear of the coming numbers. There is no turning back after the numbers are released tomorrow.
For you shorts that have not covered take a sleeping pill or two it will help you get through the night.
"If you truly understood the dynamics and the big-picture MLS system..."
I'm finding this point interesting but vague. Does anyone care to expand on how the state of the MLS system is good or bad for Move?
Not bad - but not a blow-out. Revenue up $5 million over previous quarter - some of which would be expected given, as you pointed out, that the 2nd quarter always beats the 1st in real estate.
Would be nice if at some point they would stop explaining why earnings are always so anemic - and put something on the table to buck up investors. We know they're reinvesting and all that - but they've been reinvesting for years now. At some point they need to stop talking about stock based compensation (when do the investors get paid - after all), and the law suits, and all the other reasons they always seem to give, and put some real dollars on the table.
Will it drive it up to $6? Hard to say given the over-all investment climate these days. It does matter what happens w/oil, in the mid-east, etc., and people seeom a little grouchy.
It looks like they definitely beat the street. They are playing a smart game here. The only remaining issue pulling down the net profit was the stock incentives and they have got that out of the way now.
They are doing great.
I agree that they should put aside this "stock based compensation expense" for a couple of years and give us poor schmucks the earnings per share we deserve for investing in this company. This should have been a ball-busting earnings report, sure sales are up, but that doesn't get to the EPS.
Fella you are absolutely full of it. Here are your options, if you are actually holding stock.
1. If you are short cover before it is too late.
2. Lose a bunch of money and stay put.
If you are not holding any stock stop wasting our time.
You must have already seen latest post recommending to pick up the stock. Either get smart or get off the board.
All the facts are in the Edgar filings.
Your original post only stated the current status of affairs, but doesn't support the value of this stock. It's all based on what if's and could be's.
If you truly understood the dynamics and the big-picture MLS system, which I doubt you do, you wouldn't be pumping this stock like you are.
Oh here is where you show you do not know what you are talking about.�@Read the firt post in this thread. I state nothing based on my holdings but only on facts. You however profess knowledge but put out no facts to support your position. Your P/E numbers are too low for an internet portal like MOVE.com it is an advertising vehicle within an 8 billion dollar a year advertising segment. And please do not preach MLS,s me. I know more about the politics and the operations of MLS,s than you ever will.
The schooling is over, I have wasted enough time on you.
This stock is highly overpriced at this level.
In order to justify the current valuation at a 15 PE the company would have to be generating 35MM+ in net revenue a year. It is not. It is not even breaking even at this point.
This is a stock option machine for it's founding investors and management. Anyone who buys into it is doing so because they assume the company can substantially increase it's ad revenue. While that may be possible it is far from a reality.
Another example of market hype. It may bounce but until it is ACTUALLY earning those #'s it's a risky investment IMHO.
Your comments are absolutely inaccurate. REALTOR.com on its own is growing its revenue at a solid pace prior to settling all issues in Q1. The company has already repeatedly called for a minimum ofa 15 - 20% annual growth rate going forward. You would do yourself a service to actually listen to the conference calls.
Good point however this all went down in Q1. I am quite stoked about the call tomorrow. I know they are going to beat the expectations on all points but if they blow it out the stock is going to go crazy over the coming week.
The last 2 earnings announcements were solid but not unreal, having to tie up all the lose ends left for the past issues, leaving the stock way undervalued for its dominance and advertising revenue potential. Also they no longer have any more quarterly legal fees associated with the past issues in Q2. This was millions a quarter just getting creamed off of the bottom line. Now it is sticking to the bottom line where it belongs.
Get ready to watch the stock rock, the majority of shares are held by institutions and we will see am increase in their buy/accumulate/market outperform ratings on Move.