we hear these arguments and positioning all the time from people trying to justify this stock as a buy. of course Nur. is going to say $12 but that I assure you it is wishful thinking. speculation is the only thing that will drive this stock up because (listen close here) there are no more customers to be had.
I predict Move will be .70 or less in 3-4 years after they lose the majority of MLS feeds. There will be little reason for visitors to their site. If anyone from Nur. wants to learn how this will happen they can contact me and pay me a hefty consulting fee or hire me to save them millions.
A big chunk of the revenue comes from the realtors paying them significant dollars (30 to 40 USD) per listing for enhancinig the same.
Now think about it...if I am Remax and have implemented the IDX program and therefore have all the listings that Move.com has plus i show more pictures for own listings then move does. Not only that...I have significantly more marketing dollars to advertise my website (which they have been doing)....eventually if relators do not see any significant increase in referrals then why would they pay that 30-40 USD for each listing.
Large part of their revenue apparently comes from NRT which is also a significant owner of the stock....NRT (which is part of Realogy..which is part of private equity Apollo)...most of NRT's listings are enhanced....if NRT pulls the plug...this company is history....NRT owns 25% of the US market and can alone cause this company to falter...too many underlying risks.
And coming back to the old argument...they couldnt make money in the ultimate real estate market.
I am still confused on why they have such a high fixed cost (40 million USD).