Have not seen a realistic, concise summary of potential revenue projected out 15 to 20 years in a very long time. Are there any astute knowledgable posters out there that can provide a realistic summary based upon roughly 1.5% royalty rates assuming VHC is successful in the current suit and then basically the entire industry falls in line? What are the potential annual revenues?
Goldman Sachs estimates that MSFT is bringing in $444m annually on Android patent deals.
Clearly, given the broader application of VHC patents (Android, iOS, Windows Phone, non-mobile VPN, etc.), a higher annual royalty stream may some day be realistic, but it seems that this is a useful analogue when discussing how significant the opportunity really is.
Hopefully 2012 is the year where the dominoes start to fall.
My estimation based on KL comments on royalty rates, projection of 4g mkt place & VHC's expected exposure. VHC is expected to retain a 60-70% of the 4g mkt 4g by '14 is expected to be 300 billion annual 60% of 300 is 180 billion KL said royalties will fall between 1% & 5% (1% being pre-markman, 5% being non sued companies after initial settlements) @ 2.5% of 180 billion its roughly 4.5 billion annual. Times 10 yrs is 45 billion if the company doesn't grown any further after '14.
Note these are my estimates based on the facts I've consumed over the yrs of DD I have put into VHC, nothing is written in stone, but then again that is why we are buying a pre-revenue company.
Since these number are not reported and there is still litigation going on, how on earth do you expect anyone to have the answers? Plus royalties are based upon future sales, can you predict the future?
Royalties will more likely fall in the area of 1-2; I would use 1.5% in the projection.
Another aspect that is intriging is most of any lump sum that VHC gets for the past IP infringements, net of tax, will most likely get dividended out in a special. I got the last one after the MSFT settlement and it was a nice return on investment.