The stock made a good move yesterday. The volumes were much higher than the previous trading day and it has managed to cross the $23 level. However, unless it spends a few more days here and moves a little further, there is always a possibility of a reversal. If it manages to rise above $24 with volumes, then it can lead to a major up move. The stock has spent about two weeks around the current levels, and hence there may be a little strength. The crash from $35 after the adverse judgment in the patent infringement lawsuit against Cisco was with massive volumes. That changed the sentiments totally, and it fell to $16 in a few days. It has recovered smartly after that, and has been moving up over the last several weeks. The sentiments are not likely to improve dramatically but it is quite possible that the stock may not stabilize above $24 before the next news flow decides its future course. News can be expected regarding the Apple case where it has won an award already. Some developments may take place in the Microsoft case where VHC had filed a complaint. The company remains heavily dependent on these lawsuits, and hence moves with the news flow. There are several other smaller companies which are attempting to take advantage of the boom in the IP monetizing market. MGT capital investments (MGT) has filed a multi-billion dollar lawsuit against casino gaming companies and the Markman hearing date for that is likely to be fixed soon. VHC shorts are being maintained at high levels and further rise in stock price could make the short sellers a little edgy. Any squeeze could take the stock much higher. Trigger for that will be some good news flow related to these two cases. On the other hand, any negative can lead a bit of a sell off.
Nice analysis, but it doesn't apply here. Shorts know there is nothing but negative news coming for VHC. Anyone with even the slightest hint of investment savvy was shorting all day yesterday in preparation for the next big fall. You have three major news events coming, all which will be extremely negative for VHC. AAPL will appeal if it doesn't get a favorable ruling from the judge so, either way, VHC loses. MSFT will take VHC to court to defend the newest lawsuit, so that's about 1-2 years worth of delays. Finally, the judge will deny a retrial in the CSCO case. All these are negative for VHC and will send the stock plummeting. This is why there are no short shares left. It's too easy to short this junk and everyone wants in on the easy money.
First, everyone knows Apple will appeal. KL said so in the ASM. I think that removes any doubt. However, the royalty percent that HJD rules will trump any appeal junk. From .75 upwards is a massive home run for VHC worth billions upon billions of Apple royalties. KL sees Apple's hands being forced within 12 months.
What is ironic about Apple now is that nobody really cares about them any more. KL announced he has partnered with the Android players and a trigger event will escort VHC's jump to the NYSE. The details of the complex license/partnership are being hammered out, so nothing could be announced before the ASM. However, the exact words used were, "not too long" from now, and this year. If you ask me, the only delay is waiting to see what number Judge Davis hangs around Apple's neck.
Second WRT Microsoft, KL spoke very candidly about the excellent discussions they're having with MSFT. Said VHC is already engaged with and has a good relationship with MSFT's "legal compliance" team. Very clearly, KL explained the current limited license excludes the following:
1. The cloud
2. Cross-platform solutions
KL went on to explain that MSFT is a willful infringement poster-child going into Court:
- They already license the technology
- The terms of the limited license are crystal clear
- Those items just mentioned above were deliberately carved out, and MSFT agreed in settlement
For MSFT to fight a willful infringement suit with all of these dynamics above the table would be a total disaster for MSFT. Hahaha...
Lastly, Cisco? Who cares about CSCO. That was a $200 million opportunity that got away, and shorts carved $1 billion off the market cap. The important thing is the LTE-advanced market, and VHC communicated that they have partnered with Android.
Hogan, you had better get your head out of the sand (or some other dark smelly crevasse).