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Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Message Board

  • gtemperman gtemperman Jul 24, 2012 2:29 PM Flag

    Good QTR - Strong Call - Great forecast

    Oil is holding aroung $90 - what else does the market need?
    Even if oil was around $80 - looks to me like they have smart hedges in place.
    With the hedges, there is nothing to drag on earnings all the way through next year + lots of things will add (new vessels + new discoveries, etc.)
    Think its crazy that this is trading under $20...
    first time posting anything anywhere, but been reading for a long time - thanks to the rest of you for great info.

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    • I sold some of them there sept strike 15 puts about 6 months ago and I is in the money, I am going to walk away with the cash. that there ceo better not do mo disco dancing at least until after sept.

    • I know what you think. I also know that adding this at 15s has been money in the bank and I have to resist the inclination to take profits for a trade. I'm resisting after the quarter they just reported and your and OWD's dialogue here. Cheers.

    • company trying to temper excitement until they get a true handle on the Danny II well with respect to Oil and gas... They continue to protect cash to the tune of 650mm and given they will spend 180mm on the newly converted Drillship and retire 152mm of converts at year's end, the cash balance will be 318mm b4 further capex and obviously free cash flow in the last 2 quarters. my estimate for a cash balance at year's end is around 420mm... total gross debt at year's end will be 1.05b and the cost is around 5.1% or 53.55mm or 51c per share... they are earning nothing on cash...so it's smart to use it to either buy another well intervention vessel which I believe they are looking to do or retire the hi-yield which would save them about 25c per share or half the interest expense...they have the luxury of time to help them...the only wild card is the price of oil... A strengthening gas price is a big help too of course but timely execution of the flowing oil in Q4/12 and Q1/13 will really be the tale of the tape for 2013... Margin improvement will rebound without drydocking on the service side. my cash figure is very likely too low......SO HLX will be rewarded with multiple expansion when the earnings ratio tips in favor of service vs. E&P... Any further strengthening of E&P would likely be met with an offer and I believe HLX would jump to sell...the old expression the quiet b4 the storm I believe is appropriate in this case... Am rooting for a strong result regarding the Danny II as well a successful Wang strike...These successes would no doubt light an acquisitive minded GOM E&P explorer and take us out of our misery once and for all....hedging program is really cutting down on the volatility in the earnings spikes and sell-offs enabling the company to show its real strength...

      • 3 Replies to bas32060
      • "bas", first let me say, how could I have let myself believe that you had missed the "Q+" press release. Instead, you who watch HLX so closely, hit it right on regarding the drillship. Although it not quite a “Q+”, it will hasten availability and possibly provide additional diversity. That announcement caught me completely by surprise, but a pleasant one at that. Another surprise was Transocean selling the drillship to HLX. They are not usually direct competitors, except maybe in nondrilling activities, but I assume HLX is preferred buyer over any other drilling company.

        With all the new assets recently added and coming down the road, it was also interesting to hear the CEO commenting about HLX currently facing equipment availability constraints in some areas. If this is correct can we hope for more stability and improved pricing. How about the Canyon group? The ROVs, trenchers, etc. business has been extending this hot streak for a good while now.

        Well, my usual lament regarding the "Street" continues. As far as this good news day is concerned, our (me and my son’s) HLX portfolio were looking down into an ugly 5-figure hole before the small recovery at the end of the trading day. So much for the perceived good news; awe, I know, it's just another day.

        Old Watchdog

      • Great analysis ... thank you ... your insights are appreciated.

      • Wow Bas you really offer some great comprehensive analysis -- Thanks for offering the thoughtful perspectives and taking the time to share them on this board --

        I even saw you on RIG board yesterday -- I am now hostage on that PIG -- I shouldnt have gone against my initial thesis on that stock -- now I am a 2 year bag holder at $54.16/sh (missed the run to $85 (march '11) cause I got greedy and thought going into summer oil would climb and we'd squeeze it to $95 -- boy was I wrong) --

    • Added

 
HLX
26.31-0.29(-1.09%)Aug 22 4:02 PMEDT

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