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Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Message Board

  • bas32060 bas32060 Nov 1, 2012 5:04 PM Flag

    the future of Helix

    This board has been very quiet since early summer. I wonder what the perspectives are regarding the future earnings,growth and profitability of this company from the many that have posted here b4...I certainly have my opinion and would like to know your thoughts as we move into 2013...I'll start by saying I believe the hi yield notes will be retired early 2013 and provide further leverage for earnings for this unfolding leader in well intervention...in essence adding 25c per share and reducing debt by 275mm...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • “Bas”, I’m on the same page as you regarding HLX’s current move and agree with your overall nos. I was addressing a more pointed situation regarding the current PPS drop and a possible WS’s reaction (like that’s possible) with the 4-qtr impairment write down and capital gains play as a narrow view in lieu of the broader, much more optimistic view, you and I have.
      As usual with just about anything HLX does, it mover more at the pace of an aircraft carrier than a speed boat. It’s just the nature of this business and this sale and acquisition will stretch well over a year (and this excludes the new “Q” vessel). But everything looks great going forward and waiting to see how the market will treat us going forward. My son and I took some money off the table and sold shares earlier in the $18-20 range and took last week’s PPS drop to repurchase. This was more luck than brilliance.

    • I think the quiet board is entirely due to YAHOO changing the format for the message system - it sucks! I am told they did it to make it easier to use on mobile devices + smart phones, with all the rating and like/dislike social stuff. I have XP on my old desk top and it does not work right - puts a delay in as I type...drives me nuts. I started to answer your ? a while back on the link to the vsl tracking sys - gave up.

      On the other hand, HLX does not suck at all! In fact, I am scraping up what I can here to add some more. This move down just seems to be the commodity prices and the other general market issues dragging down the price. I have seen it before and read your posts about it... and it drives me a little nuts too, but I guess makes a buying opportunity.

      Answering your question with my view - can speak only about fundamentals and whats happening in the industry. (don't understand the finance stuff enough, but your posts along with some of the other guys have been a real education). The equipment is right for the job, and the jobs are going to be there for the next few years - in O&G serv, in Wind, and in P&A. In fact the P&A market potential , both in the USG and North Sea is huge! They have made some very smart moves to add and delete the inventory to put them in a strong position. To be fair, there are lots of bottoms with lots of technology getting finished up in the yards around the world - so at some point down the road we will hit that point with one too many bottoms in the market...as always seems to happen. I feel like the price of oil will hold - but that's just guts not brains. I just figure that if it has held up through this much poop hitting the fan everywhere - then it should stay in a pretty favorable range for the next 12 to 24 months...So overall - long and strong buy.

      On that last note - lets say the price of oil starts trickling down such that by the end of 13 the average price over the year is down about 20% - what do you (or anyone else out there) think that will do to the valuation of HLX?

      have to stop this delay is killing me...sorry
      G

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to gtemperman
      • I'll add that the announcement today regarding well intervention backlog is very encouraging. When you think about being sold out on 4 vessels thru 2014 and backlog beginning to fill in 2015 around the time of the Q5000, one gets the sense the E&P division continues to move further and further into the distance although it provides the cash flow to take care of shareholders...I believe the company can do 3 things in the next year..grow earnings,shore up their reputation on Wall st and reward shareholders...Reputation on Main street already solid and the inflection point is getting closer....Even without a sale of E&P, the eps momentum can build...Reducing debt and seeing more ebitda out of services while E&P remains constant translates into at least $25-$30 per share...12x $2.50 is my number for '13...I'm always looking for a rebuttal for sure...in the meantime I continue to add........

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Oil dropping tests the overall challenges that all deepwater much less E&P co's face in drilling decisions...When you think about the intent of HLX to either sell their division or find a consistent level of production within its costs to do so, then I think of the use of the division as simply a self financing vehicle for well services.. They are a cheaper option to a drillship certainly and have the technological know how to stay an important piece of the puzzle for many many years...However, the stock price decline is more a function of what ifs...SO as I see it, the war of Macro vs Micro once again is hitting the shares....Given the pending balance sheet items that provide even more clarity to HLX eps, I am hopeful the next item for the company is to buyback some shares this spring....maybe summer...With the sale of assets and the cash as well the cash flow they currently enjoy, the balance sheet strength should translate into shareholder rewards...The company is doing a solid job delivering on its intent...THe market is also doing a good job of showing its true colors....manic/depressive!!!!!!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hey Bas! Wow it is quiet in here lately not sure why...glad to see you are still here...im rolling towards retirement heavy heavy in helix with about a 3 year timefram so will be adding here. To your question though, I was heartened to finally hear one of the analysts ask about production decline relative to new production potential .....as you had opined earlier and from some reading between the lines I do sense that management sees a relatively stable..(if thats possible) level of production through the next 2 years with new wells adequately replacing phoenix and decline...I might even say I noted some optimism in that we know this management team is very conservative and so to have even hinted at a level of stable production I believe they think there could be much much more than the current levels of production. I just cannot find much downside here....its either gonna be cash for capex or cash from a sale, but cash it will be! I am all in.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sweetandstrong26
      • The only way you get backlog that far out, that fast, on a new ship is to sign a multi-year deal with a major. Looks like they signed two deals one for each new ship. Since the announcement of the purchase of the ship from Transocean I was guessing they had a contract with a major in hand. Good news. The best thing about this backlog is they can start raising prices and driving margin up. Another way to get higher profit beyond adding new ships.

        A lower price of oil is somewhat positive for the intervention business to a point - Get more oil out of your existing wells.

 
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