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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

  • mutinycapital mutinycapital Dec 30, 2011 4:16 PM Flag

    2012 TCHC Prediction Thread

    I won the 2011 TCHC stock price prediction with my guess of $3.50. I guess I wasn't pessimistic enough.

    Let's do it again. Below is TCHC's closing price per share on the last trading day of the year over the past seven years. Information is all from Yahoo Finance.

    12/30/05 – $17.11
    12/29/06 – $23.75
    12/31/07 – $13.44
    12/31/08 – $4.63
    12/31/09 – $4.02
    12/31/10 - $3.18
    12/30/11 - $2.96
    12/31/12 - ?

    Guess TCHC's closing price on 12/31/12. You can also throw in other predictions.

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    • I was naive and clung to a misguided notion that they might revive buyout talks with HCII or someone else, so I'll temper my expectations and predict that TCHC flatlines again this year, as it deserves to continue trading at a discount to peers like HCII and UVE until it has consistent earnings and/or dividends, which seems unlikely with this management's track record.
      I'll go with a prediction of 3.33 to make it easy to remember.

    • Ugh I remember my initial investment back in 07. Great little company with a great little dividend. Averaged down ever since...little did I know.

      I've liked the recovery since the lows this past quarter, and I think they continue to show a small profit per quarter. Hoping after 2-3 quarters investors gain some confidence.


    • I'll start. Stock price $3.50. Yes, same as last year. Wish I could go more, but I can't even see them earning $0.35/sh at this point. Slap a 10x multiple on it (which is generous) and you get $3.50.

      Other items:

      1) a small dividend will be reinstated
      2) share buyback will be minimal to nonexistent
      3) all BOD members and Mgmt team members remain

      Wish I could be more optimistic, but I can't.

24.23+1.03(+4.44%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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