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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

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  • daveparker0808 daveparker0808 Nov 17, 2012 4:43 PM Flag

    You have to pay - UP to get on the ride to $10.

    Why would I pay u book when I can buy all day Monday below $8. Management has been right on and has done everything they said would. I think we will see a buyback soon. Sell me your shares at $5.25 Monday, which is a good deal for you if you really want out or maybe you just want more shares like me. Best luck anyways. I will stay in my seat and just keep eating for now.

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    • So if you don't have to and won't pay up to get on the ride to $10, I think you just proved my point. The stock price isn't going up anytime soon. It may get back to the $6 level, but it's not getting to book value.

      • 1 Reply to mutinycapital
      • Mutiny, I think it could get to book value. The seasonally worst quarter is over, their biggest expense (reinsurrance) will stay flat over the next three quarters, while both their policy count and rates (the 4.8% rate increase announced that begins 12/1/12) will increase. In addition they may have an opportunity to pick up more policies in the next month via Citizens (as per their conf call). Storms in q4 have been fairly light with the exception of Sandy, but that really didnt hit Florida too badly.

        Currenlty trading at about 78% of tangible book value. At 90% of book it would need to bet to $7.43. That seems like a very reasonable short term target to me. And that tangible book value should be increasing over next several quarters as earnings pick up.

        best.

 
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