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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

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  • mutinycapital mutinycapital Nov 27, 2012 10:29 PM Flag

    Obviously a buyback would be nice but it would kill liquidity

    A buyback would actually improve liquidity and put a floor on the stock price because you would have a steady buyer. There would be more shares up for sale because there would be a consistent bid price. The problem right now is that there are no buyers. Without demand, the price fluctuates wildly. Desperate sellers wanting out are taking any price they can get which drives the share price down. Notice how the stock price has dropped recently with increased volume after the disappointing Q3 earnings results. Yes, the results were disappointing.

    The current Board will never sell this company. The Board never entertained HCII's offer three years ago (or went through a viable strategic alternatives process) even though it was in the shareholder's best interest. The HCII offer's value (1/2 HCII share + $1) on October 29, 2009 was $5.30. FNHC's closing price on November 27, 2012 is $5.37. The HCII offer's current value as of November 27, 2012 is $12.07 ($10.22 in HCII stock + $1.00 + $0.85 in missed dividends). After they rejected the offer they went on to lose millions of dollars.

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    • I have no doubt that the FNHC board would sell this company given a fair price. Management has done a great job turning this puppy around, and the immediate future looks bright, but if a fair offer came along, I'm sure they's take a strong look at it.

      Sure they rejected the HCI offer back in 2009; but at the time, the offer really wasnt much of a premium, especially with of the proposal in stock for stock. And who knew how well HCII would do? I think its a meaningless comparison. If you liked HCII, you should have bough it, you would have cleaned up.

      Forgetting about any spilt milk of the past, on a going forward basis FNHC looks to be the far better value, at least to me. However, if you think HCI is great deal right now, there's no problem, just buy it. If you think its better than FNHC, sell FNHC and use the proceeds to buy HCII. Those are two options amongst many to help quell your pain.

      Of course another option is to continue to whine another three years.

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