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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

  • s12stocks s12stocks Jun 10, 2013 12:17 PM Flag

    More accumulation today I believe

    As you can see, volume is unusually high yet again. This stock is very thinly traded so anyone looking to put on a decent sized position can't just go in and buy in one shot. That's why you see down days with relatively little volume and up days with heavier volume. The stock really moves if someone is accumulating because it's thinly traded and the spread is so wide. I wouldn't be surprised if people looking to put on a position are doing it over multiple days in order to get a better average price.
    Having said that, it's just a theory and who knows what's really going on. To me it kind of makes sense given the fact that I believe this stock is mispriced and as a result more people are interested in it. If you look at the past few years, there's usually more trading volume around the quarterly reports and then volume dies down. Look what's happening now. The quarterly report was a while ago and there is no new news on this stock or any of its peers and yet the stock price is still significantly rising. What are the other possibilities that would cause this? It's hard for me to think of another scenario.
    In my opinion, this has been an undervalued stock for the past 3 years and I think the market is starting to slowly figure it out. I'm surprised it has taken this long given the fact that the balance sheet is very straightforward and the nature of their business isn't that hard to understand and model.
    Well, better late than never, and I don't want to jinx it but I really do have to say, this stock is still quite a value even at this price. I think if you just do some rough "back of an envelope" math with conservative numbers and have a rudimentary understanding of the business, you should come to the same conclusion. The next several quarters will show substantial growth in the business, but I don't think the stock price reflects this at all.

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    • i agree with basically everything you indicated. i might add that over 2 months of the second quarter is over without weather related problems (that i know of) so this helps! wait to long to get in (unless the market tanks) could make you miss out on a good price! if you got in a couple of weeks ago you would of had a chance to get some (not much) at around 9.00. seems a year from now under 10.00 or 11.00 might look pretty good hopefully!

      • 1 Reply to matsky5
      • Hey, matsky5....you mention that there has been no weather related problems for 2 months now, if I understand correctly what you wrote. But I think "hurricane season" officially starts on June 1. So that means we've only gone 10 days without the typically destructive kind of weather that can result in big insurance claims. I personally feel better about the storm season when October comes around. I think the season officially finishes on Nov 1. I'm with you and s12, and the few others who are now posting with substantive comments, that everything is looking up for the company. The one analyst listed on Yahoo Finance over the past 2 years has kept his/her $12 target. But I tend to discount that. One analyst. No change in his target. Over at least 2 years. It may hit $12 by December, however.

 
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