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Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F Message Board

  • dannybill2001 dannybill2001 Dec 3, 2008 8:17 PM Flag

    When will dividend

    for the first three months of next year be published? It was released on Sept. 2 for the last three months of this year. Thanks.

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    • blue_heron_tree Dec 4, 2008 11:22 AM Flag

      My 2 cents:

      I think that there is NO doubt that AOD will cut the dividend, my guess is to 10 cents, but possibly as low as 6 cents.

      My reasoning:
      209.1MM share outstanding at CURRENT $2.16/shr/yr= $452MM of dividends they need to earn to keep current payout.

      AOD NAV is currently: $1.4 Billion ($6.80 x 29.1MM shrs)

      If AOD puts the max 80% of the portfolio NAV into the dividend rotation strategey then $1.1B would have to earn $452MM or a 40% return.

      Say they can capture 6 Divvies, so the average div is 40%/6 or 6.6%----if they are capturing 4 divvies in rotation then the avg yield is 10%: Too high an assumption in either case, not to mention that increasing the Dividend recapture percentages is RECKLESS in a foreseeably down market (again Imo), because the necessarily high turnover causes constant realized losses.

      AOD has already liquididated another $1.5B in NAV since June 30. They only have $1.4B left to invest.


      Disclosure: I follow this position for my Dad who owns at initial offering price...have advised to sell multiple times, but he loves getting a monthly divvy and refuses ...$14 of disintigrated NAV and I still can't convince him to sell.

    • On Monday, I had a chat with another AOD rep. He said the divvy would be announced within two weeks, and, when pressed, was equivocal about a cut, citing market turbulance. He "invited" me to sit in on the scheduled conference call.

      Of course, he is not a manager, and it is unclear whether he's basing his remarks on corporate scuttlebutt or inside track information or what.

    • Alpine advised that the dividend announcement will be announced before December 15th.

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