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Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F Message Board

  • energystocker energystocker Mar 2, 2009 10:21 AM Flag

    The technical story so far

    If you notice we are at 7051.14 which is major support.
    Do I hear 5700?
    Will the stock-market operate at fair-value of about 3500-4000?


    (16,400 shares below are illustrative)

    Actual

    7373 6.09 $100,000
    7338 5.74 $94,252
    7267 5.61 $92,118
    7115 5.36 $ 88,011
    7089 5.57 $91,348
    7050 5.54 $90,856
    6922 5.28 $86592

    Estimates

    7373 6.09 $100,000
    7050 5.80 $95,600 Better hold or we are in a full depression
    6890 5.69 $93,400
    6444 5.32 $87,400
    6088 5.02 $82,500
    5732 4.73 $77,741
    5059 4.17 $68,613
    4580 3.78 $62,117

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    • Never go all in.. 1/3rd at a time is the way to do it.

      Keep some cash.. you don't know what will fail to function.

      Sometimes in upside down times the most unlikely things happen.

      A mortgage, a bill from a credit card, and money are just paper numbers in some computer. When you buy a house the bank owns it. You might be able to live in it even though some number in some computer indicates otherwise.

    • The funny thing is its falling fast. I hope your worst case does not happen. 5700 might happen soon and Monday the big crash......that would be the time to make a long bet. I do feel like today would be a good time to buy some but why fight the crowd on the way down. SPY that is...

    • Going Long 1/3 of a time at the following levels might be a strategy

      5732
      5059
      4580

      You have to think that the world might be a great deal different with the dow down to those levels.

      I know the projections are 10% unemployment presently. The real unemployment number now is something like 15% There is no sense in adding 3M jobs with stimulus as its a drop in the bucket.

      Most pension plans are virtually and totally insolvent at these levels. At 4500 this fact would have to come to the forefront.

      I would hope this level would not be met. Beyond 25%-50% unemployment we might see pension failures, food lines, shortages of goods. Who knows.

    • So you could say going long the SPY at 5200 one would have to think that there would be reward to the upside.....

    • Will the stock-market operate at fair-value of about 3500-4000?
      (down 250x again today,,, are we going to see a bit of a pop into day end?)

      (16,400 shares below are illustrative)

      Actual

      7373 6.09 $100,000
      7338 5.74 $94,252
      7267 5.61 $92,118
      7115 5.36 $ 88,011
      7089 5.57 $91,348
      7050 5.54 $90,856
      6922 5.28 $86592
      6726 5.13 $84132 NAV of 5.41 or value of 88,724
      6727 4.93 $80852
      6634 4.73 $77572

      Revisions to Estimates
      5732 4.08 67024
      5059 3.60 59154
      4580 3.26 53553

      Estimates

      7373 6.09 $100,000
      7050 5.80 $95,600 Better hold or we are in a full depression
      6890 5.69 $93,400
      6444 5.32 $87,400
      6088 5.02 $82,500
      5732 4.73 $77,741
      5059 4.17 $68,613
      4580 3.78 $62,117

    • 5700 could be a bottom.. that is a pivot point or a long-term technical point that has been visited many times in the past.

      If you were going to value the DOW by fundamental value the target would be much lower. Stocks are supposed to be a function of earnings and those earnings are now non-existent. Were the DOW to go to earnings potential then the value would be between 3500-4000.. The targets presented in this chart, are long term pivot points.

      Short term there is no support. There is strong resistance at 7558 and 8344 and 8948.

      Notice the short term figure of 7558 is very very close to my long-term calculation. I am using six month history to calculate short-term targets and thirty year history to calculate long-term targets.

    • Do I hear 5700?
      Will the stock-market operate at fair-value of about 3500-4000?

      I guess I read this wrong.......

    • 5732 is one of many pivot points.

      The critical pivot point was 7050 and we are well below that in uncharted territory.

    • goofball,

      try reading the posts again. there is some talk about 5,700 and also a possible trading range well below that.

      i don't know how you managed to come up with "calling 5,700 the bottom" out of the commentary here.

    • Would you go long the SPY at 5700?

    • View More Messages
 
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