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Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F Message Board

  • bluebuick2003 bluebuick2003 Nov 30, 2012 2:04 AM Flag

    AOD versus SPY, EZU, FXI, and EWZ

    every now and then i check alpine (AOD), blackrock (BOE), and eaton vance (ETO) to see how they are doing against ETF's. if i invested 100k in AOD compared to investing 100k across SPY, EZU, FXI, and EWZ. at the beginning of this year, alpine had their assets 51% USA, 38% europe, 7.5% in south america and 3.5% in asia. so i invest 51k in SPY, 38k in EZU, 7.5% in EWZ, and 3.5% in FXI.

    the results YTD are AOD is up 6.6% (XAODX or NAV is up 6.9%). however the 100k invested in the ETF's is up 13.6%. to get to the 6.6% i used a beg bal of 4.38 minus closing price today of 4.12, which is a loss of .26. then add back .55 in divs paid for a profit of .29 or 6.6%.

    i've followed alpine for a long time. every now and then it looks like they have a decent qtr but overall they are not very good. they seem to lose more in a down market and make less in an upmarket. that doesn't work out very well in the long run.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • i took a look at AOD's holdings as of 7/31/12 (posted to edgar online). it looks like one of the main reasons for their poor performance is europe, mainly the UK. if you look at their top holdings, roughly those over 20MM (2% of the 1.0BN in total assets) you have WFC, JPM, IBM, FCX, and AAPL in the US. those stocks appear to have beaten the SPY by a notch since end of july (increase of 4% versus 3% for SPY, i didn't count dividends in this, just rough math). FCX and JPM were the big winners, up about 15% each. obviously they had other holdings so you never know but this seems like a decent start.

      then i looked at some larger european holdings. BATS.L, DEO, ESV, GSK, and SDRL. compare these to EZU and you see that EZU was up 17% for the period (end of july until now) and these five stocks were up only about 1.5% in aggregate. not one of them beat EZU, DEO was closest at about 12%. the first four are listed in the UK and EWU is an ETF for the UK. EWU was up about 8% during the period while alpine's larger UK based holdings (noted above, except for SDRL) were at roughly 1.5% (same as it was including SDRL as SDRL was flat during the period). again i didn't include dividends in these returns. i wasn't sure what ticker to use for nestle so i left that out.

      Sentiment: Sell

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