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Galyans Trading Company (GLYN) Message Board

  • thermo_bea thermo_bea Oct 17, 2003 2:17 PM Flag

    hitting the wall for now

    Looks like we'll settle around 12 and shake out for a day or so before the next move either way.

    This stock could easiliy be at $20-$25 in a year - take a glance at their earnings and cash flow numbers.

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    • I happen to like the company as well as the technicals. There are two stores here in the Washington, D.C. area. Galyans is the best sports/outdoor store I've ever been in. They have everything in a great setting and great quality as well. Sports Authority doesn't compare as far as a total shopping experience. Galyans' problem may be that they are too upscale. But, selling at little more than book value, it's hard to figure why people are shorting the stock.

    • I agree with you judge_crater: I bought in two days ago at $11.05, just because the chart and technicals looked good, and because Mang was going to get free advertising at the Nasdaq on Friday. I hardly know a thing about Galyans, never been to their stores and probably never will - all I did was look at the company data and the chart ...

      If Friday wasn't going to be a breakout day, I would have simply bailed out at $10.80 or $11, taken my loss and moved on ... BUT, we got the breakout so I'm staying for the ride. We small-time investors can't know all the tips and inside info that the MMs and insiders have, but we can look at the data and the charts and base our decisions on that ...
      ... and the data and charts say "LONG" right now.

      Sorry pusher, you can moan and try to convince us that this is a loser company, and maybe it is a loser company, but until the charts tell me otherwise, I'm staying on this train for a nice ride up.

      Besides, who in their right mind would short a retail stock heading into the first "economic-recovery Christmas season" for years that we're about to have????

      Good luck to you all - hope that you shorts have NOT covered yet, I'd like to see $16 by Christmas on this one :-)


    • Whatever the fundamentals, there is something going on with this stock. It has broken out decisively on a day when the broader markets were down 2:1. And volume was 3x normal. With such a small float and such a large short position, you've got to wonder who is going to sell? It looks like a classic short squeeze. And the momentum players are going have it showing up on their screens. Just that scenario points to several more points on the upside.

    • yeah right - the only way this thing sees $20 - $25 is if it does a reverse split.

      I've looked at the "earnings" and cash flow. What the hell are you so excited about. See you in the single digits.

      • 1 Reply to pusher_420
      • ENDING 2-Aug-03 3-May-03 2-Feb-03 1-Feb-03
        Net Income (186) (2,566) 16,719 16,719
        Ops CF 22,423 (22,429) 57,075 57,075

        TTM Ops CF =~ $115M.
        TTM CapEx (most of which is for new store openings) ~= $53M

        TTM Free Cash Flow > $60M (much higher if one would only consider maintenance CapEx)

        CURRENT ASSETS about $20M greater than TOTAL LIABILITIES.

        Market Cap after today's little run: $210M

        Even without subtracting excess cash, we get less than 4x TTM FCF. (ANF, even after subtracting it's large excess working capital, trades at about 13x TTM FCF and is more reliant on trends and fickle consumers and has a less-diversified product line)

        Oh, and insider employees are buying the stock at these levels: