I luv your outlook Jon. Being the pessimist that I am however the wild card in all of this (as I have posted before) are the in-place licenses' T&Cs! We just do not know how they read and I just pray UDC aint given away the farm just to get the signees to pony up. I guess we will know more once the royalties, chem sales, and financials are sufficient enough for us to figure the T&Cs out. All I know is I want the 10 bagger and more after waiting 8 years.
'alas slowly'...AMOLED has taken much longer than I expected back in 2000..(remember 'blue will be ready when they are'....it all seemed like it was one to three years away for so many years (2007 seemed like the worst case and that is where we are but it is now happening) - and there were some failures in PMOLED (the low hanging fruit) to get off the ground with Pioneer, and then Sony tried AMOLED and then retreated (most likely backplane issues) but they seem to be jumping back in again. It seems to me that UDC has been narrowly spared the fate of CDT as we actually have manufacturers beginning to scale up production of AMOLED using UDC's PHOLED. CMEL, LG Phillips, and Samsung are all big partners with deep pockets and big ambitions. Sony and Toshiba are a little further out in their timelines, but the same. UDC will finally pay off. I think longs will be rewarded for all their patience over the coming years, maybe starting as soon as this year.
<We can expand rapidly into the existing LCD market while ultimately (alas slowly) displacing it as AMOLED, which is slightly more complext than WOLED, matures for larger and larger apps.>
Ok Jon ... I agree with ya. But, 'alas slowly' ? I want and need the profits now ... 2-3 yrs ..... hate to see it all go to the nursing home!
More detail on LGE! Great - Looks like they are planning an investment akin to Samsung's (very big). This is very positive for PANL. Samsung is running two mass production Tokki machines - sounds like they have ramped to mass production.
PS LCD has always been seen as our competition - but OLED may be the best backlight for them (LCDs) which makes this a market to exploit rather than compete with. We can expand rapidly into the existing LCD market while ultimately (alas slowly) displacing it as AMOLED, which is slightly more complext than WOLED, matures for larger and larger apps.
For the not-so-fluently-German-readers: Sumitomo, still digesting Cambridge Display, plans its first OLED-tv's for 2009-2010:
"Erst vor kurzen hat Sumitomo Chemical die OLED Pioneer Firma CDT Cambridge Display �bernommen.
Jetzt sind erste Details �ber die Pl�ne von Sumitomo Chemical bekannt geworden. Die Firma will so schnell wie m�glich die Kommerzialisierung von grossen surface low cost light emitting Materialien und P-OLED (polymer) Ger�te.
Wir wollen popul�re Applikationen wie Fernseher Ger�te und Licht Systeme einf�hren, so Kiyohiko Nakae von Sumitomo Chemical. Nakae stellte eine Roadmap vor in der die Einf�hrung von OLED Displays und TV Ger�te vorsieht. Im Detail will Sumitomo Chemical 2008 ein Display auf den Markt werfen und 2009-2010 ein TV Ger�t anbieten k�nnen.
Sumitomo Chemical to Make CDT Wholly-owned Subsidiary
Aug 02, 2007 18:43
Masao Oonishi, Nikkei Microdevices PRINTER FRIENDLY FORMAT Digg This! del.icio.us
Sumitomo Chemical Co. Ltd. has announced it reached an agreement with Cambridge Display Technology Inc. (CDT) of the United States to acquire CDT as a wholly-owned subsidiary.
The agreement is aimed at early commercialization of large-surface, low cost light-emitting materials and devices using polymer organic EL (electroluminescence).
"We will accelerate development of popular applications such as large-screen TVs and wall lighting systems," said Kiyohiko Nakae, Executive Officer, Sumitomo Chemical, explaining the reason for the acquisition. "Although expecting no return (from this investment) over the next two to three years, we aim to be ready when the rapidly growing market is established in and after 2010."
CDT Inc. was listed in 2004 on the NASDAQ exchange in the United States by Cambridge Display Technology Ltd. of the United Kingdom, which is CDT's development and business center in Cambridge, England. Sumitomo Chemical will purchase all of CDT's outstanding shares through NASDAQ.
The planned purchase price is approximately $285 million (USD). CDT will become Sumitomo Chemical's subsidiary following the approval at CDT's shareholders' meeting in fall 2007. Sumitomo Chemical formed Sumation Co. Ltd., a joint manufacturing and marketing venture with CDT, in November 2005.
Nakae indicated a roadmap, saying, "We will commercialize a display, which is not a TV, in 2008. Then in 2009 to 2010, we will strive to release an organic EL TV product." He explained that the color purity of emitted RGB light is equivalent to that of low-molecular organic EL materials.
"We consider developing not only materials but also application devices since we recently begun to know we can also extend a life and efficiency by changing the material's structure," he said, citing the green organic EL material's light-emitting efficiency as the company's current challenges to be addressed.
"Polymer organic EL is still advantageous," Nakae said. "Its features of coating and printing processes can still be applied because it does not require a vacuum environment when manufacturing. And it can be made into large-surface devices at low costs because it has a simple, basically two-layered structure consisting of a light-emitting layer and a hole-injection layer."
Sumitomo Chemical has already started co-developing such devices with some display manufacturers, he said,
"We hope that we can bring our organic EL displays up to a level that can be shown to the public within 2007," Nakae said.
The company will also focus on organic EL lighting systems that are expected to replace fluorescent bulbs along with displays, he added.
I would say the red and green are definitely over 50,000 hours. I thought the Idemitsu fluorescent blue was aslo up to TV ready lifetimes. I was under the impression from their recent webcasts that it not the materials so much as the backplane technology that needs to be focused on. The way they quote iSupply and UDC they make it sound like OLED has no advantqages over LCD. The article fails to cite the advantages of oLED such as thinness, viewability, increased efficiencies, refresh rates, color gamut etc... (qualitative advantages) - typical myopia to just look at cost.
CNET article is almost laughable when it continues to focus on cost of a new oled TV.
The reasoning goes something like this:
Calculators at 100.00 will never replace slide rulers.
Digital cameras at 500.00 will never replace 35.00 film cameras.
LCD TV's are beautiful but far more expensive than the mature Cathode Ray Tubes so adoption by the public is unlikely.
As for the technology of OLED VS plasma&LCD--someone call the writer and inform them that plasma is all but dead.
Tell the writer that perhaps white oled's may be incorporated into current LCD TV's as back lighting.