so udc has only provided guidance one time in the past and look where that got them... one solution is just simply don't provide guidance... didn't say it was a good solution but now that we understand the roll out provisions can be called upon and negate what was supposed to be easy confident calculations their low ranges will have to come way down to try to account for any future roll outs...(unless they can work out some arrangement for smd to stop using that provision hint hint).
fyi we used to give them a lot of grief for not providing any guidance....now we give them grief for providing guidance too high... the should follow the Apple road and always provide way too low guidance so the worst case is meet and the typical case is beat. They aren't really managing expectations well but I think they never thought SMD would use the roll out provisions. Seeing a big green stock pile up in inventory really fooled a lot of folks too. The combination of assuming something big was imminent due to the green pile up and then the roll out was a double whammy. On the flip side if they do buy 2012+2013 green mins in 2013 that is exciting ... but :I wouldn't expect to see those reflected until 8/2013's report. If the GS4 goes out the door in april-may ... if it goes out earlier we might see it show up in the 5/2013 report. It may be a difficult 1H especially the 1Q without flat fee and if no green for Q1 another ugly lumpy without the lump q. 8/8 should be the good fortune news again. 5/2013 Q1 E/CC will likely be the first time we find out the Q2/Q4 fees for 2013 so there is room for a surprise there (either direction) a big upside compared to expectations could offset a negative spin of no flat fee but that media spin on q/q comparisons can be brutal. all this #$%$ about sales diving without the flat fee is really a misleading thing as GS's analysts said the lumpiness wrecks havok on all sorts of stock screen and news creating algorithms. The good news is that with a buy back program now in place the company can buy its shares back on every lumpy off quarter over reaction. so along with RC@DC's smooth moves along the same line we might see some evening out of these Q1/Q3 problems... seems RC@DC is very agile now in the AH market buying on weakness toasting any shorts hoping for further drops at the next open. Frankly maybe UDC should be in the AH market scooping up shares along with RC@DC when it runs into short selling bots not getting the lumpy thing.
You're right about waiting.
Too bad management didn't and counted their benjamins at 28.
It's not a sure indicator of course - they also cached out before secondary at 45 if I remember it right, and the stock went to 60+. It would be funny if the market play the same joke on them again.
As for outlook - don't count on getting one. Steve will cite some Display Research numbers for the outlook on OLED TVs and smartphones but won't tell you how to convert it to host material sales. Previous earning calls were rather vague about UDC business metrics.
It often sounds so pathetic when Steve sites Display search, Sid did a good job at the last Investor Conference this past month. I hope the same writer helps Steve this Earning call. As long as they tell us that Green and Green host have been ordered in large quantities,(Sid did say that green will be in the next Sammy product release) and if there are some increases in purchases from AUO and LG, things will look rosy again.
Also the royalty payment at least will paint a better picture, i.e. no negative earnings this time.