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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

  • dca1125 dca1125 Feb 8, 2013 10:28 AM Flag

    musings on the coming year

    When you've owned a stock like PANL for as long as some of us have, when you've watched management grow the company from a dream and a story to a reality when you can see the way the future appears to be playing out in the most positive way you sometimes just sit quietly and enjoy the ride.

    Sometimes there is no way to correlate this reality with the parallel world of the stock market.

    My guess is that business is and will be great this year. Sales of red will grow the the growth of OLED. If Samsung is up 75% in 2013, red will be up 75%. And then there's green. That's going to be hitting the market in February and March and growing. So will green be up 30 or 40% this year? And there will be televisions. And AUO and others will be coming online. And Samsung's guaranteed fee will grow from $30 million in 2012 to some larger number in 2013...........might be $50 or $60 million.
    And all this in an upward trajectory.

    And by the end of the year, PANL will be looking just great.

    But what about the price of the stock? How will Sid and Steve promote this? What will they say at the Conference Call this month? Will they look back to 2012 and apologize for missing their projection? Will they be timid about 2013's projection? Will they be forthcoming about their expectations or will they play it safe?

    Will the shorts hammer everything they can? Will the longs put their money where their mouths are?

    Who knows.

    D

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    • This is rather generic sentiment - it's all there just like it was before November earnings. I wasn't expecting the drop to 21 , and I think it was an ugly surprise not just for me.
      Here is my cautionary notes;
      - Great technology is not equal to great company. Samsung's and LG's OLED sales growth numbers are not directly translated into UDC sales growth numbers and even less correlated with stock price performance. If PANL profit doubles but "analysts" expected it to triple stock price will tank. It's just stupid world of investment.
      - Calling PANL as QCOM olf OLED concerns me a bit. Back in 1998 some predicted QCOM would go to 1000. It's still a great company and they still dominate in their technology domain but it's not at $1000 .Many longs here are projecting their wishes for PANL to 100 or 300. There is more than one parallel in comparing PANL to QCOM.
      - Another point is that management doesn't look confident in stock performance as much as they confident in success of OLED . Why they never buy stock in the open market? Mr. Citrone is the only one who buys the stock and while he has his reasons it seems that he stays away from getting into company management.
      I think PANL will stay highly volatile this year and probably next year - it may get to 60 and to 15 as well.

      • 5 Replies to surrealskiller
      • panl's price follow revenues which follow oled capacity increases. Follow the total oled capacity growth pipeline and you can get panl to 100-300 based on 5 fold increases in oled capacity at SMD, LG, et all.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I think you're right. Management often does not look and sound confident in their conference call presentations and yet they know what's happening best. Makes no sense to me.

      • surreal dude,

        FYI-- a better comparison between companies would be interdigital and UDC.

        "Why they never buy stock in the open market?"

        Great english there dude. If you actual knew the history of PANL which you do not, you wouldn't say such things.
        Lawrence Lacerte was buying lots of stock in the open mkt. Has not sold any either.

        "I think PANL will stay highly volatile this year and probably next year - it may get to 60 and to 15 as well."

        Wow. Astute. The stock price could go higher or lower. Brilliant.

        Two years from now PANL could easily be over 100(80% chance) and it is highly unlikely you will ever see sub 20.00(5% chance) again.

      • You need to do further research. Qualcomm went public in 1991 with a stock price of around $.55. Since then, they have had multiple stock splits. 1 share in 1991 would be worth 32 shares now. At the current price of $66/share, your 55 cent investment in one share would be worth over $2,000 today. Plus you would be receiving quarterly dividends on each share.

        As far as UDC, if you recall, management did institute a $50M repurchase program. So they are buying back shares on the open market.

      • Surreal, you make fair points about unmet expectations and irrational stock fluctuations. I think the key is that with reasonable (not unrealistic) growth projections PANL is entering into unchartered territory. No debt, more quantifiable value of patent portfolio, 30%+ growth and a PE under 3 digits -- as the long-time followers of this stock can contest, thas not been the case in the history of PANL (except for no debt).

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Doug I have to believe that they would sell an equal amount of red and green by yearend. I believe Tolstoy said the greatest warriors in the world were Time and Patience.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to mabelairasesq
      • I too have ben a PANL stockholder since the 1990s. There is no direct correlation between Sammys' success and ours. SMD is constantly working to improve the efficiency of consumption of our product. That's just a fact of manufacturing. So the increase in SMD's sale of OLED devices doesn't translate into an equal increase in UDC sales. Another thing is green nor blue will never equal the sales volume of red. Red is the dominant color. As long as UDC is dependent on only SMD as their principal source for volume, problems wll continue to occur such as what happened in the 3rg qtr.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nice
      D
      all good things come to those who wait
      ; )

    • Doug---nice, very nice.... and my sentiments exactly. As for the pps.... I see $60+ this year and maybe $100+ in early 2015! Yoweeee...... the whole world should know this stock...but it remains largely under the radar..... and will remain so until televisions and then lighting make OLEDs an everyday household name!

      skimer99

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Reading this I'm tempted to buy even more shares. I just don't see down-side risk

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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