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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

  • aporeh aporeh Mar 15, 2013 9:33 AM Flag

    Shorts will fold or fight the trend?

    Shorts might try to manipulate by selling shares to one another or take their losses and move on. If the second option occurs this stock will go about allot

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    • it will take a big earnings beat and/or a long-term contract with LGD to shake the shorts. or blue. That is at least until the TV ramp begins early next year at which point you no longer wonder if this is something that will be adopted and the shorts have to be out by then.

    • I've spoken with the sales manager at a short etf that was once a holder of panl shorts...he explained that sometimes if the short manager builds a story they will hold that short against a lot of pain thinking their forensic accounting will prove out but the sales manager also said that these funds base a lot of their shorts not on forensic analysis but momentum/ta to the extent that panl ta would break out the ta based shorts would likely fold/cover. To the extent shorts have insurance (call options) the expiration dates of the options may determine when/how they cover. The forensic analysts who hold their story and turn out to be wrong are the ones that get burned the most. This particular fund covered their panl short awhile back.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • There are many cases where "smart" shorts (Bot or human) cover when the stock goes down and add when the stocks go up. The big question though is the thesis broken...to the extent that a thesis was built around a story yes...its likely broken and they should fold ...to the extent a bot is going short based on a stock screen the bots thesis may not be broken until official earnings data is reported to modify whatever ratios they based their short upon to no longer fall in their criteria...that may take another 2-8 quarters. The P/S thing is likely throwing off a lot of short bots (maybe humans) that just don't get the high potential profit margin looming as their profit margin approaches their gross margins (60-90%) while they keep their opex contained and the oled capacity growth expands (either literally or through additional colors on same overall capacity) by 50% a year. If these bots only look at profit margin without respect to a company in its early stages of R&D inflection pointing into mass production where their profit margins start rising to approach their gross margins they are TOAST and won't cover anywhere near in time. No doubt these bots spread their bets widely so if they get burned 1 time they don't flinch as long as they are right over 50% of the time and applied risk management they may not learn to modify their bots for this fairly rare condition (there are less than 10 stocks with sky high gross margins and low profit margins and no debt etc).

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • That is what I was seeing on level II at the open. While most asks were lined up behind 34.25, someone kept dropping in asks at 33.95. These would get bought and the next ask would be 34.25 and the ticker would keep showing the ask below 34. This pattern held for a minutes before the buys took over, but it shows that there are those out there willing to sacrifice a few shares to keep the price down.

    • please expand on "allot"

 
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