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Leucadia National Corporation Message Board

  • buffett_on_the_downside buffett_on_the_downside Dec 30, 2008 2:03 PM Flag

    Anyone have an estimate of current book value?

    I'm talking as of today. Thanks.

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    • That's it...no more benefit of the doubt...besterman 1. you have got to be the biggest jackass investor in the world...OR... 2. you own NOT even a share of this stock or JEF, and get paid...to troll and say stupid shit!

      I'd take it it's the first one...but you could use option 2 above to explain your dumbass ways...

    • so what do u think is a good entry point ?

    • I don't short stocks, I consider buying stock as becooming a part owner in an actual business.

    • Really? Then how come you weren't shorting it when it was at $50?

    • I love it the way the shorts come out to play when the stock drops in price and how the longs come out to play when it goes up. It's funny because it should be the exact opposite - but than again we live in an upside down world.

    • no one said we hit the bottom for sure...but one thing i do know is that recessions end eventually, and this one started in H2 '07 making it already one of the longest, so maybe we start to recover towards the end of the year or next year....either way, even if recovery is mild the stock market will initially rebound visciously, especially stocks below BV that are discounting BK to some extent.... also this environment is the fertile hunting ground for C&S that will provide LT buyers great returns from here!!!!

    • "...Still there is no safer place to park your money than LUK, with good upside if things turn around sooner. "

      That is a patently false claim. In the Depression scenario that you reference, a high cost iron ore producer like FMG will suffer from sustained low demand and low iron ore prices, will not have access to capital and will ultimatley go BK or have to be restructured. What is LUK's note worth in a BK? i've asked this question several times now and nobody can give me a thoughtful answer (I truly want to know, there has to be a way to value the deposits, etc.).

      LUK is down because ACF could also be a zero - probably not, but the potential is there. ACF needs to raise more capital, will probably (at least partially) come from LUK.

      I'm sorry but i'm still short - your $5 billion of book value does not reflect the likely write-down of their NOLs on 12/31/08. You should check out ISI group's note on that.

    • Just call the company and I think they will be more than happy to send you a PDF file with those reports.

    • Do you have their old shareholder letters prior to ones on their website?

    • Some quotes:

      1990:

      "..Unfortunately the previous seven years of plenty have been largely financed by debt which the nation cannot over time sustain. In the coming years, a correction is inevitable...A wise man once said that you become more conservative when you have something to conserve. We will continue to endeavor to compound our shareholder's equity at an attractive rate, but with considerable caution"

      1993:

      "We have collected a large pile of coconuts and our job is in no small part conservation as well as growth. First, we will endeavor to keep the coconuts we have then add to the pile. As in the past, we debate endlessly but proceed cautiously"

      1994:

      "There has been an lamost continuous bull market since 1980, 15 fat years! We worry that the bears are out there somewhere and they must be hungry!"

      1995:

      "...we must appear to be genetically gloomy about the future. We are unreconstructed. We fear for the diminishment of our capital. Our government in Washington is disheveled. We observe with wonder and amazement the longest bull market in this century..How high can up be? When will the business cycle bicycle in the other direction?"

      1998:

      "As we head off for our second 20 years together, one of us is excited and energized by the opportunities at hand, the other is hunkered down for fear a tsunami resulting from the next Kondratief Long Cycle will was us all into poverty. Hopefully, somehwere in between lies the truth."

      2000:

      "We think equity markets will continue to fall toward or below their historical means and that this process will take considerable time. Falling markets, financial sorrow and woe, perhaps not good for the nation, are the garden in which these groundhogs thrive!"

      My impression is that management is "hard-wired" to understand risk and be conservative. They've been saying it for years. Another interesting thing I note is that similar problems of national debt have weighed on their minds before. Strangely, before 1990, they seem to have been less "witty" in their letters. I believe management is improving and getting better at what they do. There is no time in Leucadia's history where an investor should feel better than the present.

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LUK
23.04-0.130(-0.56%)Jan 23 4:04 PMEST

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