Today was a critical day for Leucadia. It has been trading below the 200 and 50 moving averages and today it crashed through the 100 day moving average. Lots of selling with no strength in sight. Could see support around 15. If not, it could see the 12's.
We've had a great opportunity over the last 6 months or so to copiously buy LUK. Comparatively, there are many other bargains now--too many for me to justify purchasing more above $19. If we hit $16 or $17, it's worth nibbling at again; under $15, it's worth adding a bit more. Everyone's got to make their own decisions though; not everybody is suited for just one form of investment process. In hindsight, it would have been a bit sweeter had I not bought so heavily so early in the last 6 months, as the ideas I am buying now were even better bargains than LUK was over that same purchasing interval.
Let's see if your reasoning makes sense (PS it doesn't).
$20 is not attractive as the discount is less than 20% to intrinsic value. Then you probably liked it at $10/share 2 months ago and bought a boat load. Correct?
Book value has been growing around 15% annually. 5 years from now it will be $60, so you will be willing to pay $30 for the stock or 1/2 of intrinsic value.. Discounted to the present that is about $20/share.
So by your own numbers you should be excited to buy at $20 since it meets your valuation criteria. Correct?
I would stake out a position using Puts with an X of 17.50. If it never hits $17.50 you earn your premium but if it falls you can get in at a comfortable level. (I am out on Spetember, but you could go longer or shorter expy.)
This would be a good discussion. My valuation on CFO, Ebit, and secuity valuation, based on eight years of discounting is perhaps $30; not enough for me to be attracted again. My liquidation valuation is touching $24, based on my valuation of their assets, one or two dating back to the 1980s.
You mean you won't post again on this board until the price hits $30? Please, please, please Besterman, keep that promise.
You're more right than wrong but your tone is just way toooooo over the top. Give it a rest already. Stop trying to convince everyone how smart you are.
Please do us all a favor.