Suprise! Revenue should double this quarter over last. GSA
After extensive search and modeling...it appears ISRG will sell 164 + new green sites this quarter... with 80% or greater Firefly sales in these units. Couple this with the first sales by the now 6-9 month PinPoint sales force and doubling last quarters revenue should be attainable. With revenue growth in triple digits the market will reward the company's stock price as they go positive with ongoing earnings for the first time. There is still 30 days left in the sales calendar to add to the existing total... The previous record for Da Vinci green sites was 73 back in 2011.
This would be a great surprise indeed. What leads you to the 164*.8 estimation for Firefly?
Also...I am remembering the interim Pillar results from April, which led to the 20+% bump. The estimated release date was oct/nov for final results...any indication of when the results will come or what the study's results could do to pricing above and beyond sales figures?
Using ISRG web site for Google locations of Surgeons and Hospitals, Category, Home City, Hospitals, All lists 1966 sites. I keep record of these on a daily basis. When new sites show up I track down the new hospital and check their web site to find out when they added the Da Vinci. I also purchased a list of all the hospitals in the US and have developed a selection filter to identify "likely" candidates. Checking these out periodically identifies many of the current new sites or ones which will become one. Add these together and compare the results with the quarterly conference calls to estimate the real new Green Field Hospitals. Have been doing this since 2003. It's less accurate than in the early days but still feeds into other metrics to (Repeat sales based on capacity utilization, Trade-ins based on statistical and age of original and S models, physicians listed including specialty, .....other factors).
As to the Pillar study I have no information about when or what will be in it, but I think the market moving ability has largely occurred already. I expect the full study will just confirm the preliminary result from a statistically strengthened perspective (larger sample size and removal of anomalies)
Expect and look for a new study on the enabling and efficacy of PinPoint in Endometriosis to be the next big market mover. If it proves as powerful as I suspect this could increase the value of NVDQ by 25%-40%. (500k annual procedure potential in the US alone)