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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Nov 14, 2013 3:19 PM Flag

    today's Canacord presentation

    This was a very interesting presentation, particularly as it relates to the Luna product. I had assumed that Luna would be used only for determing blood profusion during amputations. Today, Arun indicated that it's use would also involve diagnosis to determine what medical treatment to follow. Should a stent be used? Amputation? oxygen treatment? There are multiple approaches a diabetes doctor can take depending on a comprehensive insight into bood profusion. Luna provides that diagonistic capability. Arun indicated that during presentations to these doctors they saw that capability almost immediately. A very positive development.
    I would really appreciate someone else listening and verifying my comments.
    regards endo

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    • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 18, 2013 7:48 AM Flag

      Endo, listened carefully to the presentation and read the transcript. It sounds to me like Arun has a purchase in mind to simultaneously 1) add something to their "Ecosystem" of diagnostics and 2) adding a ready supply of marketing persons. If anyone finds a company that meets both of these whether private or public or a division of some larger conglomerate that doesn't quit fit, please post. Based on the stock offering of ~$100 million the purchase should be in this range. Their remaining $85 million cash should be used to build inventory and grow organic marketing capabilities .."we expect to have around 50 marketing persons by the end of the year (2013) for our Luna / PinPoint products.

      Hypothesis: Arun has so many opportunities with PinPoint and the "very enthusiastic" 100 person Diabetes luncheon that they gave he want to jump on these with both feet. He said " after the 1st hour of our presentation they 'got it' and the enthusiasm built from there. With future "Luna Lunches" planned, expect dozens if not 100s of enthusiastic clinicians to take the message to national conventions. The market penetration could be very very rapid and we may be seeing revenue move from 40% to triple digit growth rates within the next two years. At around $250 million revenue (Estimate 2015) this company should have net margins of ~20% and be earning ~$1 as share. With a P/E north of 40 the price will be the share price.

      Note: I estimate P/E = earnings growth (3 year average, 1 year historical, current year and 1 year future) + 6

      Endo, Fish, other serious MG contributors please consider and let me know both your thoughts and any potential acquisition candidates.

      GSA

    • I, too, was impressed by the explanation of the value of Luna to diabetes patients. There a lot of them and screening will be a major source of revenue.

      One other interesting piece of the talk was the use of the recently raised cash. Arun said that the company would be very careful, but that building a larger sales pipeline through M&A would be advantageous in getting their products into the field quickly. Their plans seem to be well mapped.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Yes, Arun mentioned the "full view" of perfusion in the limb --- and not just a particular point in the limb--- whereby Luna can lead to the proper course of treatment, whether it be oxygen treatment, or partial or total amputation. Very exciting! Will you be at the Investor Day presentation this Mon, the 18th?
      vonpezel

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 14, 2013 5:45 PM Flag

      Just got home from prison. (Bible Study) Will do endo.
      This is what I saw in the Luna potential and expect it will be a grand slam once the Diabetic community realizes its groundbreaking value in 1) diagnostics (pre-treatment), 2) verification (during treatment), and 3) confirmation of treatment efficacy (post-treatment). This third venue is what the medical and insurance industry is moving towards, particularly with The Affordable Care Act legislation i.e. payment for performance.

      Thanks
      GSA

 
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