On Intuitive's latest conference call (1-24-14) a figure of 80% was given for da Vinci Si-e systems sold with Firefly. A nod was given to Firefly for helping increase the number of general surgery procedures. For da Vinci, general surgery increased 93% in 2013 and has overtaken urology as the second most performed procedure category.
I think this trend also bodes well for Pinpoint adoption.
The way I heard it was 80% of US sales were with the Firefly. That would be .8*72= 58. They sold 69, 76, 69, 88 to ISRG in the previous 4 quarters so this will be a downside disappointment for Firefly. Note: this comment did not reference any Firefly sales overseas, so the number could be larger, especially since the overseas sales were almost the same as Domestic sales (72 vs 66). My forecasting model has them at 92 ISRG Firefly sales. Possible, but with the disappointing US number, not likely. Still in all, Firefly and the kits sold to ISRG are becoming a much smaller piece of the NVDQ revenue pie. Since the pre-announcement of $10.7 million in Q4 (exact model forecasted revenue #) this actually could turn out to be good news. A bigger upside surprise from PinPoint and LUNA sales.
I believe the market drop off in NVDQ price today to be a sympathy swing with ISRG (US hospital budgets frozen due to uncertainty of Obamacare). This as others on this board have stated is a buying opportunity.
Indeed the 80% figure was for the US machines. My point was really about the percentage and the desirability of SPY technology as evidenced by the steep ramp in general procedures, where Firefly shines, not the absolute numbers of Firefly systems sold. With capacity overhang and ACA issues still playing out with da Vinci system sales, the numbers might not jibe with procedure growth for a couple of quarters.