Over the past two years, I have tried to listen to every CC, investor day presentations, and Investment Bank presentations. Yesterday at the Barclay's presentation it was the first time I have heard anything about Pinpoint second generation containing an endoscopic capability. If it was the first time it has been mentioned, it could be contributing to the recent surge. The across the board fundamentals of this company continue to get better and better and better.
Yes, previously it was all about flicking a switch to add SPY to the existing endoscope. Something must have changed for the company to be rolling out a brand new endoscope with all the bells and whistles.
better and better.....
The endoscope market is $3 billion US as I remember. Someone may be able to correct me if you have better info. Hospitals won't have two endoscopes and since they are the same price which one would they choose? One with fluorescent imaging of blood profusion, including analytics to compare blood inflows and outflows, and cancer margin capability or a standard visual lite scope? Look out J&J time to look for a replacement for $3 billion revenue. Also, there was an updated handout on the web which reiterated the 0% leakage results of the Pillar preliminary study. Why would you put that chart in if you knew that within a week or two your release of the entire study had different results???? Also in that web handout were estimates of the various markets Novadaq expects to capture. At first look I noticed it had increased from 1.6 to 1.7 million applications per year. (compared with last May's list)---some of the categories had different headings but were the same (Gynecology vs Endometriosis), then I noticed the new 1.7 million were for the US only! The 1.6 were for Global!
1) New game changer model of PINPOINT to be rolled out at the SAGES conference 1st week of April--should knock existing endoscopes out of the box
2) PILLAR II to be published within "2-3 weeks" most likely by SAGES conference, showing ~0% complication rates when surgeons use Novadaq technology vs 16-35% depending on type of surgery
3) Companies estimates of market potential has doubled in less than a year
Guess this would cause Novadaq to "go parabolic". I expect the price to be greater than $30 by May 2014. Terminal price using the above new information in my model, $310@ by 2021. This doesn't include the radiological capabilities or new molecules or new applications...these will only add to the terminal price.