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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Jun 16, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    April vs. today

    Imho, a number of subtle and not so subtle changes have occurred here and the oos is beginning to reflect those changes. Please feel free to take issue with any of these comments.

    In April, the upward momentum players and a number of Institutions took profits because the stock had unjustifiably reached a high over $24 per share. This exiting was compounded by a rapid increase in short interest. to over 2 million shares. Today, based on the relatively light volume levels over the past week or two, it seems apparent that the momentum players are gone and the selling pressure of the Institutions has abated. The latest short interest report shows a decline of 80 thousand shares.

    In April, Intuitive Surgery was under attack and its stock dropped substantially. We are still closely associated with them and that further compounded the pressure on our stock price. Recently, Intuitive won a negligence case by a jury vote of 10 to 2. That verdict will impact on other pending cases. Intuitive stock has rallied recently and we are beginning to also move up.

    In April, there was a great deal of uncertainty related to our other partnership agreement. A great deal of the negative uncertainty was recently substantially reduced by the comments of Arun, who indicated that both companies are already discussing an orderly transfer of marketing. This will have a positive impact on our revenues when it happens.

    In April the issue related to the sales force was would their efforts result in a continued growth rate of 40%. At a recent investor conference Arun indicated his continued confidence in the 40%. This guy is fundamentally very conservative so my conclusion is the sales force is doing well for this stage of their development.

    Obviously, as with all stocks, we are vulnerable to an overall market correction. Quite frankly, that is the only dark cloud that is possibly looming on the horizon.
    regards endo

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    • andersongordon Jun 17, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

      Good summary Endo. I caught the same Bloomberg 1year old new as if it happened yesterday....I would be embarrassed to write an article announcing the results of 2012 elections as if the just occurred last night. Notice in the article they didn't even mention that it was 1 year old to the day...just sort of forgot that 2013 is not the same as 2014. On another topic...Endo and Von and if Fish still is out there, the Medtronics /Covidien deal will free up about 10 to 15 $Billion to purchase med equipment companies. NVDQ at ~$1 Billion (15% premium) is well within the scope of their prowlings. I would hate to see it and since they are a Canadian company the tax advantages are not as strong, but still as a one stop-shop for Hospitals, to get NVDQ in-house would be a plum. A 100% premium (~$30@) would be a steel but might entice enough shareholders to part with their shares. Medtronics/Covidien with their vast marketing departments could push NVDQ's products into hospitals in a small fraction of the time it will take NVDQ. Good for Metronics, bad for current NVDQ longs, but this is Capitalism. Let me know what you think, but please don't tell Medtronics just in case they haven't though of this yet.

      An other twist is what would J&J do now that they are feeling the greater threat from a larger, more capitalized, tax advantaged player in their space. They might want to make an offer to NVDQ as a preemptive strike.


    • Thanks for your post.
      Small correction: " Recently, Intuitive won a negligence case by a jury vote of 10 to 2. That verdict will impact on other pending cases". Actually this was old news from 2013, spun by Bloomberg as fresh news to keep their negative narrative going. Let's hope the best is yet to come.

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