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  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Accumulation In Play

    In the past few days the stock has meandered and declined for the first 5 hours. Then the volume picks up substantially and 10-20k shares every 10 minutes are purchased driving the price from a 1-3% loss to a small nominal gain. It looks to me like some institution or individuals are acquiring shares, perhaps as much as 500k in anticipation of the upcoming end to silence at the conference call. I expect a $.05 per share loss this quarter but underlying progress is being made in setting up the breakout expected in 2015. The marketing division is being assembled, and organized to support explosive growth. The papers and studies will either be in place or be released come early 2015. These studies will clearly and powerfully show both the clinical as well as economic benefits of NVDQ's new technology platform. I say platform because there are many new and exciting weld on technologies as well as applications that will enhance the argument for hospitals as well as clinics to include NVDQ systems in their health management and treatment.

    Arun has stated repeatedly "40% revenue growth". Starting in 2015 expect this to increase to double that for a few years.
    GSA

    P.S. Forecaste: NVDQ goes positive recurring earnings in 1st quarter of 2015.

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    • Hi GSA,

      Thanks for the note. I am impressed that you can estimate that the jump from 40% to double. I believe your confidence comes from having seen this phenomena or this stage of growth before with isrg. It will be interesting to see if nvdq scales any differently. nvdq is somewhat different since it has a multi-product play given that diagnostics/luna is now a viable product.

      - Bharat.

      • 1 Reply to bharat_313
      • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

        Very astute Bharat. The adoption curve I have been calibrating with each new piece of information is very similar to the one I used for ISRG. There are differences but the value for Novadaq's suite of instruments is very compelling. Internationally and in wound care I think the adoption curve will be stronger than ISRG's though the US hospital adoption may be weaker primarily because of all the hysteresis caused by Obamacare. The maximum acceleration "knee" should manifest itself in Q2 or Q3 of 2015. That's where the analysts are the most behind the curve and upgrades will abound.

        This is my current estimate for what it's worth.

        GSA

 
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