Sat, Nov 29, 2014, 12:21 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • g_noh g_noh Jan 16, 2013 5:42 PM Flag

    Fansteman, Bikesurfer, and Soho-riots

    First, thank you very much for your serious responses. One never knows what to expect on these boards.

    Second, I'm wondering whether any of you developed an earnings model for HALO. After posting my initial question on this board, I talked to an analyst friend on Wall Street and had him canvass all the analysts that follow the company. The revenue and earnings estimates and projections are all over the place, which is understandable considering all the moving parts. Significantly, too, nobody has the company turning profitable before 2015.

    Given all the moving parts, I figure your projections are as good as any analyst's on Wall Street. I'd be curious to know what kind of revenue and earnings estimates you're using to derive price targets as aggressive as $20.

    Thanks again for your help.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Regarding the Ultra Fast insulin pump program, as soho stated it will be a significant revenue driver by the end of 2014, and I just want to add that during HALO's analyst day presentation in October 2012 the company stated that the market adoption of this product will occur quite quickly and market studies tell them that they should attain at the very least a 20% total penetration, so at $25 million in revenue per percentage point of penetration that is big money and it's a growing market.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bikesurfer
      • Bike- Insulin Revenues may begin This year- From the Street:

        "Hylenex for insulin pumps offers several advantages to the current standard of care, including faster onset and more physiologic response," said analyst Gregory R. Wade, Ph.D.

        "Halozyme has made significant efforts towards commercialization of Hylenex for insulin pumps, we anticipate insight into timing to be the next significant catalyst for this opportunity," added Wade.

        He thinks Halozyme may begin to derive revenues from the Hylenex insulin product in the fourth quarter of 2013.

    • soho_riots@rocketmail.com soho_riots Jan 17, 2013 12:27 AM Flag

      Both Herceptin and MabThera have about $2 billion in western European annual sales. It stands to reason that subcu MabThera will get a larger % of sales than subcu Herceptin. Assuming a 5% royalty, I think subcu Herceptin could penetrate 50% of the market, i.e. $50 mil/yr royalty. Obviously, it would take a few years to reach peak sales, depending on Roche's rollout plan. Subcu MabThera should get at least 75% of the MabThera market at its peak (which I think will be reached fairly quickly, based on its numerous advantages), i.e. $75 mil/yr. royalty. The only question mark I have is about mid-single digit royalties - does that mean 5% or 3%. I don't think I have ever seen it defined.

      Management also has stated that the Ultrafast Insulin pump program will be a significant revenue driver by the end of next year. For every 1% of pump market penetration, they estimate $25 million in revenue.

      Bonus revenue opportunities -
      1. New partnerships, which are even more likely now that their platform has been vetted by Pfizer.
      2. As Pfizer advances product candidates to trials, milestones will be triggered.
      3. PEGPH20 in Pancreatic cancer in Phase 2, with topline results due shortly, could be a blockbuster supplemental therapy that would not have to top SOC because it works (hopefully) in tandem; it also has indications in other cancers.
      4. HT-501, with many indications, most profitably in cellulite. Currently, in Phase 2 with results due very soon. Management says it has an excellent safety profile. If it's effective, this will be a blockbuster, which is sure to be partnered for big bucks.
      5. Baxter's Gammagard, with preclinical trials ongoing, this could be resubmitted sometime this year for FDA approval
      6. Cinryze subcu is still 2-3 years away, but it is a $400 million/yr drug and growing. With a 10% royalty that could add $40-50 million/yr to HALO's coffers down the road.
      7. Further data on subcu MabThera could prove it to be more effective than IV MabThera, which would force U.S. trials.

      • 2 Replies to soho_riots
      • soho_riots, thanks.

        I fully subscribe to your approach, only want to add a few words of caution on Herceptin SC and Mabthera SC and some up-side consideration, too. We have to wait and see the final label that EMA is going to put on Herceptin SC and whether the product will be approved for marketing and use in all the indications that Herceptin has (adjuvant, neo-adjuvant, metastatic 1st line, 2nd line etc..breast cancer and in gastric cancer). Same holds true for Mabthera SC (indolent NHL, high-grade NHL, maintenance treatment... and rheumatoid arthritis). Second thought: Of course, Roche will likely go for premium pricing. The question will thus be to what extent healthcare systems in Europe will be willing to pay that extra money (despite the savings in resource utilization and the patient and caretaker QoL aspects) once biosimilar (cheaper) copies of Mabthera and Herceptin become available in Europe (and what their labelled indications will be). Final downside consideration: You might be aware of Genentech/Roche's activities in HER2+ breast cancer and that they have launched pertuzumab and are about to launch trastuzumab-DM1 with some spectacular results in both products pivotal trials. The success of these new approaches will further limit the market for Herceptin SC. Likewise Mabthera, where their GA101 is in full development across different Mabthera indications and - depending on outcome - will be marketed as the improved next-gen Mabthera limiting the potential for Mabthera SC. So, I think, in essence your approach is valid, things in regards to market potential and penetration rates may just be a bit more tricky in real life.

        Up-side: I'm sure, Roche is also pursuing the SC opportunities in some of the non-EU markets, particularly emerging markets, which would add back potential sales to both products outside the US.

      • Soho, nice way of breaking it all down, I will copy and paste your reply and keep it for my records. I have a question for you: regarding PEGPH20, what do you mean when you say..."would not have to top SOC because it works (hopefully) in tandem".

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • You're welcome.

      My investing acumen is strong but I must say that this is my first foray into biotech stocks. I don't invest in companies where the nature of the business is complex, however believing that the biotech sector will probably be the most rewarding sector of the future I had to delve in. So with my knowledge of the sector being very limited I looked for a company that had a very knowledgeable and successful biotech investor holding a significant position and Randall Kirk's huge position in HALO caught my eye.

      I have no real model, my price target is based on the following: (1) the fact that the stock hit $13.50 back in April 2012, (2) analyst Greg Wade of Wedbush Securities issued a target of $17 on the stock in October 2012, (3) the new recent partnership with such a big name pharma in Pfizer, and (4) the increasing confidence from BMO Capital in a Q1 2013 Herceptin approval and I think $20 is very achievable. And that doesn't even take into account all the other catalysts in the product pipeline for 2013.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bikesurfer
      • Thank you all again for taking the time to provide as much information as you did. And for those of you looking to expand your foray into the biotech sector, you might find MannKind of interest too. You can get a quick handle on the company and its prospects by googling Griffin Securities, Keith Markey, and MannKind. Fyi, Kieth Markey has been an analyst for more than 25 years and has a scientific background. We worked together for a long time and I know him to be a very conscientious detail-oriented analyst. His price target of $14 (the stock closed yesterday at $2.64) is probably too aggressive, but I think his research is solid.

 
HALO
8.78-0.09(-1.01%)Nov 28 1:00 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.