completely win this case as both users took Vioxx a long time. However, if they do, the stock is going to shoot through the roof as it is expected that they lose. I think we will see 40+ if they win this case.
i think it is a misconception that MRL is unproductive relative to other companies and biotechs - I just dont see any blockbusters coming from anywhere else. Merck is first to market with DPP-IV inhibitor Januvia, a sleep drug in phase III, first to market with cancer vaccine Gardisil,the furthest ahead with HIV integrase inhibitor in Phase III. HDL raising drug in trials. A couple of these are billion + per year products. I think the days of 10+ billion dollar per year drugs are gone for all companies until the next gen of HDL raising drugs (which merck is ahead or at least close to the pack). I dont think earnings will grow significantly in the next few years, but they should be at least flat. Just my opinion.