If they actually buyback their shares in the open market
Look at where their price is currently. If they actually do a share buyback from here like they said they would the upside looks promising. Not trying to sell anyone here, just food for thought but the risk reward may be worth it.
How would we know whether the company is or isn't buying on the open market? I assume they will be buying...or already are buying...based on their legal window during the day. Most likely we won't know for sure until their next earning's report.
Usually you know they are buying because you will see a slight increase in volumes and the price goes up. The float is also reduced as they buy back their shares, especially if they retire them so you have less than the current approx 34 million shares on the float.