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MiMedx Group, Inc. Message Board

  • archerspyman archerspyman Oct 26, 2013 12:41 PM Flag

    Has Anyone Done the Math?

    Hi, all. Got a question. Has anyone taken a look at the revenue for the industry (all three products) and matched it against MDXG's expectations? You can do the math with one of the last slides in the most recent investor presentation. MDXG, as you know, is significantly cutting total industry revenue through their much more efficient product. I get $75 million to $100 million total revenue for the industry assuming MDXG takes it all. So far so good - given the share MDXG is taking, it seems likely that MDXG will get most of the revenue and I think this is more or less consistent with the company's expectations. Then I wonder if anyone has done the math to figure out the impact of new reimbursement figures that may take effect in 2014. My calculations say revenue must fall by at least half to fit inside the proposed reimbursement figure of $874. MDXG's margins are certainly awesome and I think they can drop their price enought to still have a positive gross margin but revenue won't come close to target if the new reimbursement amounts go into effect based on my calculations. I'm no expert by any means and so I'm wondering if any of you have done the same math and come to a different conclusion. And there won't be any additional volume to make up for lost prices because MDXG will have taken it all. Just wondering...can anyone help me understand better? Love the company but...

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • diabetic foot ulcer market is estimated to be 2 billion dollars. Just google diabetic foot ulcer market size and a link to a WSJ article on OSIR comes up first

    • Well if you had done your home work the $874.00 CMS reimbursement is what is so exciting! Mimedx's 3 cm patch covers 74% of all diabetic ulcers and sells for $300. and still makes the 84% margin! What people don't understand is this skin substitute is a huge win for Mimedx. They can go 4cm; 5;cm; and 6cm now offering 4 products of different sizes! By the way getting reimbursed! Osiris has yet to begin. This stock is just getting ready to go! If you look back they have delivered on everything they have said!

      • 1 Reply to stemcellmagnet
      • Thanks, stemcell, for the thoughtful response. The only intelligent reader of this board, possibly? That response is great. May I ask where you got the price of $300? Page 29 of their most recent presentation shows 2.5 patches for a patient on average which would put the cost at $750 per patient. They applied more than one patch to heal a patient. But nonetheless, with that price point I can now get excited about the company again. Looks like they will take a hit to revenue but not as much as I had originally calculated. Assuming they can take most of the share out there the targets look good. And you are right, of course, management has been rigth for a while. But unlike docsurick and his friend, i've learned to not trust management of these small companies too far with my money.

    • I see you have a new account with the only 3 posts all in this thread and have a sell on MDXG. The math is easy, don't be lazy and don't trust anything you read on a message board.

    • You open a yahoo account on Oct 26, post a question for us while posting that you have a sell sentiment? Sounds like you already made your decision. Why ask us? I'm sure you will be one of the many new yahoo accounts that disappear from here after MDXG takes the next leg up.

      Read Petes letter to CMS. Intelligent minds can put it together. CMS will crush the major competitors with higher cost structures. Reimbursement will change for the industry post ACA from MDXG to the largest device maker, Medtronic.

 
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