Today's action was frustrating indeed. I was hoping for MACs signings.
Lets not forget, one of the reasons for the sell off over a month ago was due to the concern that MDXG may potentially withdraw products from the market. This included Inaccurate media reports (which I blame MDXG for not addressing more promptly, OSIR responded within 24hrs) mentioned Epifix which caused a little panic.
Now the discussion / evidence appears to be whether or not Amniofix and Epifix micronized will be regulated as a drug or 361 as opposed to being pulled off market. I'm fine with any scenario that keeps them on the market. A BLA is not a bad thing. That injectable revenue can fund the trials and strengthen ourselves with payers. I said this before, we could use FDA stamps with payers so we can get past the "investigational" stages.
Some uncertainty remains, and the stock is being held down because of it.
Three MACs still unsigned. CMS ruling isn't due out until late November, and the FDA will respond at their earliest convenience. In fairness to management, many of these issues are outside their control, yet the uncertainty remains.
I think many longs here are looking at this all wrong! I think it's great the stock is chill'n out in the 5s. I've been in since $0.50 with more at $0.75, $1.00, $1.25, $2.5, $4.85, and again recently at $5.4.
Sure, I was disappointed and #$%$ when it dropped from the high 7s down into the 4s before recovering, but the way I see things now is that growth is unfolding at the high end of projections, and there are a ton of additional opportunities for growth that I didn't even anticipate when initially investing.
Yes, there is definitely uncertainty, but the type of uncertainty here should not materially impact the NPV of the business.
Regarding the MACs, it really sucks that those remaining have not yet signed on. There is a reason, and that reason is causing uncertainty. Yet, despite these remaining MAC signons, MDXG has managed to beat earnings. They will sign on in time ...
Regarding the FDA, it really sucks that this has and will be such a distraction and time-suck for management, but regardless of outcome, the future revenues will be there. Worst case is some extra fixed costs spent on clinical trials, and cash flows being pushed back a bit. With interest rates at 25bps, this barely affects discounting of future cash flows. We already know there is market demand for the product ...
Regarding CMS, I see the decision as a non-event. If they change to a comprehensive/inclusing billing, then all wound care opertions will have a financial incentive to use EpiFix since it is the most cost-effective solution and is really the only current solution that would let them still make money on these operations. If CMS keeps the status quo billing, then MDXG will continue to grow market share as more and more physicians see how great the product is and hospitals see the inventory advantages from shelf-life, cost of storage etc. In either scenario, MDXG becomes the long-term dominant player and thus the steady-state future cash flows remain unchanged.
Lot of short shares out there and not much interest from funds to go long. We know this company will be bought for a premium in next couple years, but short term they have to keep growing revenue and market share. Mostly retail investors on the long side and organizations on the short side (7.5 mill at last count). Patience and revenue growth.
I am sure they are. The more frustrated they are and the longer the stock dooes not move higher, the sooner the sale will come albeit at a lower price than it woudl if it came in one year, two years, etc