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MiMedx Group, Inc. Message Board

  • searcher132 searcher132 Feb 13, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Amniofix

    With the company trading at 7x sales (assuming $100 million run rate soon), there are some high expectations priced in..... it seems the real longer term upside is the Amniofix soft tissue treatment, as many have suggested. This is obviously the subject of discussions with the FDA... could it be the shorts are simply banking on the FDA removing the product from the market while the company goes through the BLA process?? while this wouldn't be a long term issue, it would certainly affect the timing in the otherwise open ended growth story there....

    isn't this a bit of a shorter term issue, and perhaps helps explain the stock action???

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    • 7x sales is certainly expensive unless earnings picks up considerably. I believe I remember Petit mentioning that earnings would start to show improvement in 2014? Is it unreasonable to expect $25m in earnings on $125m in sales (both annualized at the end of 2014)? If so, the PE multiple could be around 30x - 40x which may be cheap given the international growth potential, epifix potential in the united states and amniofix potential. Nothing is ever a given in this world but it certainly seems as if the company just needs to grow into its stock price a little. My guess is the stock price will rally when the company gives investors a better understanding of what that growth picture looks like and some uncertainty disappears as noted above and in the other posts. All in time.

      • 1 Reply to archerspyman
      • I generally agree with your thoughts on price but not sure your earnings will materialize assuming the growth rate. Because of having to continue to grow the sales force and R&D related to new products and FDA adoption I think it's difficult to drive a large amount of net annualized bottom line by the 4th qtr of 2014. If that's the case, I think stock buyers still concentrate on top line, gross profit and continued identification of applications even if they can't be addressed yet. Medtronic is a wild card here but could be huge. We might even be surprised by additional distribution agreements which leverage off the technology.
        I'm in for the long run and would be happy with $15 to $20 in 18 months.

    • I agree searcher, that is why I threw out yesterday 2 years ago we were at 1.25, most are not investors and just short term gamblers letting the daily fluctuations determining if they are happy or mad, human nature of course, but a recipe for long term failure investing. When Pete and Bill do finally sell you will need to be "in" the stock to capture that premium, and in my 30 years of failed trading and successful investing I am 100 percent convinced the game is a fix, the big money and market makers control these little stocks and the small trader can only hang on and wait for the payday, which usually in my experience comes when the stocks appear the darkest, if it was easy any idiot could succeed, and this game isn't designed for idiots to succeed. So the moral to this rant is, don't be an idiot, set an objective either with time or price, or in my case because I have time, my objective is to hold until company is sold, even if it takes 5 or more years, and if have been in this stock for 4.5 years so far, good luck to all, except the shorts:)))

      • 3 Replies to old_wisetrader
      • Wise advise from an obviously successful investor.

        OWT mentions that investors should set and objective and his obviously is higher than the current day sellers. The current rest that this stock is taking is not manipulation. It is wise investors accumulating shares at a level they are comfortable with. Everyone can't expect a steady increase in price without rests for consolidation of gains along the way. Let the story evolve. Let Amniofix get noticed in the medical community. I for one knowing the reputation of Dr. James Andrews and his work take that endorsement as a blue ribbon.

        As stated, OWT obviously was in early and joined by other investors those may have set objectives to simply take the $7 and run now. Short sighted yes, but the sellers here at $7 have objectives. One Larry Livermore quote I remember vaguely is " there are hundreds if not thousands of reasons to sell a stock but really on one reason to buy a stock". Another qute has to do with short selling... "those who sell what isn't his-in must but it back or go to prison"....Shorts baby - we love ya! All longs should love the shorts, because those are tomorrows buyers. Short positions come out on the 15th each month - anyone care to guess where the MDXG short position goes? Really just a spectator sport but its fun watching it.

        So no I don't agree there is manipulation on these stocks. I think buyers want to buy shares at a reasonable cost. Why pay more than you have to if someone will sell you shares eventually at a reasonable price? No need to bid it up. Let the sellers come to you for any number of reasons.

        G-Y-Not....

      • I have pretty much been in "set it and forget it mode" on this stock. I am in for the long haul and have been buying more on dips. Waiting for the buyout. I'm not going anywhere. Any of my short term comments relate to the stock going down in price on good news which makes no sense.

      • monarch6500@sbcglobal.net monarch6500 Feb 13, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

        The company may not be sold. With the income that they will be getting, mdxg may be the keystone in a series of purchases of smaller companies some years from now.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Epifix has huge upside potential on its own. Several surgical procedure applications being realized. The FDA seems to have allowed marketing while studies ongoing.

 
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